Methodology
How each figure is made, and what the figures leave out.
Last checked against the UCDP pages:
A program makes every figure on this site from UCDP files. This page gives the rules of the program. The page Glossary gives the terms.
The files behind the figures
All counts of events and deaths come from two datasets of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The first is the Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED). UCDP releases it one time each year, after review. It holds the events up to the end of the year before.
The second is the Candidate Events Dataset. UCDP releases it each month, before review. It holds the events of the newest months. UCDP says this about the lag:
It makes available monthly releases of candidate events data with not more than a month’s lag globally.
This issue uses UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. The data run through 30 Sep 2026. Both datasets have the licence CC BY 4.0.
What UCDP counts as an event
UCDP define an event as: An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
A count of events on this site is a count of these records. One event is one incident at one place on one date. UCDP keeps the events of an actor or a dyad that passes 25 deaths in a calendar year. The page UCDP Methodology gives the rule.
Periods
UCDP publishes the newest events with a lag. The site therefore ties every period to the last date in the data, now 30 Sep 2026. It does not use the date of today.
- The latest complete month is the newest month that the data cover to its last day. It is September 2026.
- The 12 months to a date are the 365 days that end on that date.
- The tables of change compare the last 90 days with the 90 days before them.
- A monthly report covers one calendar month. It lists each event of a month with 10 events or fewer. For a month with more events, it lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths, in the order of their dates. The CSV file has each event.
Estimated deaths
UCDP gives three estimates of deaths for each event: a low estimate, a best estimate and a high estimate. A death figure on this site is a sum of the best estimates. The low and the high figure are sums of the low and the high estimates.
The site counts civilian deaths from the field deaths_civilians of the UCDP data. UCDP defines a civilian in its own way. The glossary quotes the definition.
In 183 of the 52,014 event rows that the site holds, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate. In 40 rows, the low estimate is higher than the best estimate. The site shows these figures as UCDP publishes them. A monthly high figure can therefore be lower than the monthly best figure.
A page or a table with this order carries the note: In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.
Preliminary figures
The figures from January 2026 onward come from Candidate Events. UCDP says this about them:
Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.
The mark P follows a figure that rests on Candidate Events. A figure of one calendar month carries the mark when the month is from Candidate Events. A figure of a longer period, such as the 12 months, carries the mark only when it counts at least one event from Candidate Events. A figure whose events are all from the GED has no mark. The key to the mark is at the foot of each table that holds the mark. The site includes the Candidate rows that UCDP flags for further checks, as UCDP publishes them.
UCDP can change the count of a month that the site shows already. The change log then says that UCDP revised the count.
Places
A country page counts the events that UCDP places in that country. A region is a first-level area of the UCDP data (the field adm_1), such as a province or a state. The tables of second-level areas use the field adm_2.
The site uses short country names. UCDP writes "Russia (Soviet Union)" and "Myanmar (Burma)"; the site writes "Russia" and "Myanmar" in titles, headings and lists of countries. "Israel and Palestine" is the site's name for the one country that UCDP and the site count for Israel and the Palestinian territories. UCDP writes "Israel" for it.
Outlines of countries and regions come from Natural Earth. The site matches them to the UCDP names. Where no outline matches, the map shows the area of the events only.
Actors, as UCDP names them
UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. The glossary quotes the definition. A page of an actor counts each event in which the actor is one of the two sides. The UCDP fields are side_a and side_b. The count does not say which side caused a death.
The site writes each name exactly as UCDP writes it, with two labels of its own. UCDP codes an unidentified actor as "XXX" and a country number. The site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP". A side that UCDP writes as "A, B" is one actor.
The site withholds the name of a group that is named for a person, or may be, everywhere. The group has no page, no share card, no search entry, no feed item and no item in the change log. Every table, event row, dyad row, CSV file and JSON file shows the label "Group named for a person (name not shown)" in its place. The UCDP event id stays in the CSV file.
These two labels are the words of the site, not the words of UCDP. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.
Rates for each million inhabitants
A rate divides the count of the 12 months by the latest World Bank estimate of the population of the country. The table shows the count, the population and the year of the population beside the rate. The World Bank does not publish the rate. The site calculates it.
For Israel, UCDP and the site treat Israel and the Palestinian territories as one country. The population is the sum of the two World Bank figures. Region populations come from Wikidata, from a copy that the site holds.
Tables by measure
Seven tables list the countries in name order, at the addresses under /tables/. A table has no rank column. The reader can sort a column. The sort stays in the address of the page.
Two tables show a change. A country is in one of them when it had 20 events or more in the earlier 90 days. Its count in the last 90 days must also be 20 percent or more above, or below, the earlier count. The table shows both counts and both periods.
How a change is worded
The site states a change as two counts with their two periods. For example: "The count was 195 and is now 83." It uses the words "up", "down" and "level" with a percent. It does not judge a change.
The change log
The page Changes in the UCDP data logs what each UCDP update changed. The log follows three counts: events in the latest complete month, estimated deaths in the latest complete month, and events in the last 12 months.
- A monthly count enters the log when it differs from the month before by 5 events and 20 percent. For deaths the amounts are 10 deaths and 20 percent.
- A count of the 12 months enters the log when it differs from the last logged count by 10 events and 10 percent.
- A revision is a change in a period that the log holds already, by the same amounts. The log says "UCDP revised".
Which pages exist
A country or an actor needs 10 events in the last 12 months to have a page. A region needs 5. A page that has been published stays online when its count falls under the limit. It then carries a dated note and asks search engines not to list it.
Which pages search engines list
Every page keeps its address. A page that has few figures of its own stays online and asks search engines not to list it. The sitemap leaves such a page out. Search engines list the home page, the pages about the site, the lists, the tables and the findings. They list the pages below when they meet the limits.
- A country is listed at 25 events or more in the last 12 months. A region is listed at 30 events or more, and only when its country is listed. An actor is listed at 50 events or more.
- A comparison of two countries is listed when each country has 100 events or more in the last 12 months.
- A monthly report is listed when three things are true. The country or region is listed. The month is one of the last 12 months. The month has 20 events or more for a country, and 30 for a region.
- The page of a month that does not meet these rules is one row in the table of months on the page of its place. That table is in the page that search engines list.
The limits for a page to exist are lower than the limits to be listed. The limits for listing are in one place in the program. A page that moves over a limit when UCDP updates the data is listed or not listed in the next build.
Findings
Five pages under /findings/ answer one question each about all the countries with a page. A table is ranked by a count that UCDP publishes, in the order stated in its caption. The sentences above the tables come from fixed rules, with a period beside each figure and two numbers for each comparison.
- The table of types of violence has the countries with 100 events or more in the 12 months. The table of civilian deaths has the countries with 100 estimated deaths or more.
- The table of change has the countries with 50 events or more in the earlier 12 months. A small base would make a large percentage.
- The table of regions has the 50 regions with the highest counts. A rank is a place in a list of counts. It does not say that a place is more dangerous or less dangerous than another.
Position, change and difference
The page of a country, a region, an actor or a month has a short paragraph that sets its count beside the whole. The paragraph gives three facts. The first is the place of the count in a list of counts. The second is the count of the 12 months before, and the change. The third is the type of violence whose share differs most from the share in the whole. A region is set beside its country. A country, an actor and a month are set beside all countries with a page. Both sides of a comparison are sums of the same event rows with the same periods. A share of a type is stated only for 20 events or more. A change from a period of the GED to a period with Candidate Events can come from the way the two datasets are made. The mark P shows the figures that rest on Candidate Events.
Charts and maps
A chart shows 24 months in one colour. A hollow column is a preliminary month. A line marks the change from the GED to Candidate Events. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
A map plots the coordinates that UCDP gives. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths, on one fixed scale. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country.
Downloads
Each country page offers a CSV file of its events and a JSON file of its figures. They come from CC BY 4.0 data. Name UCDP and link the page when you use them. The CSV file names the UCDP dataset of each row and says whether the row is preliminary.
When the site is built
The site is built again each day. Each build downloads the UCDP files again. If UCDP does not answer, the build uses the last good copy and keeps the data date of that copy.
Editorial policy
- The site prints counts and their sources. It gives no advice and no forecast.
- The site does not say that a count is good or bad, and it does not call a place safe or unsafe.
- A count is not a measure of danger or of blame.
- A word of UCDP is a quotation, with its source and the date on which the site read it. The site sets its own statements apart from the quotation.
- Tables of named places and groups are in name order.
- No page, heading, feed item or share card is about a person.
- An error in the processing is corrected, and the correction is logged with its date.
Known gaps
UCDP says this about its death figures and its coverage:
The fatality estimate is thus best interpreted as creating a baseline, and users should keep in mind that the precision of the numbers belies the uncertainty of the estimates.
Ultimately, it is impossible to know how many conflict events go undocumented and are therefore missing from conflict datasets.
- The site shows only what UCDP records. An event that no source reports is not in the count.
- The newest months are preliminary, and UCDP can add events to them.
- The site holds event rows for the last 25 months. An older month has its totals only.
- A place with few events has no page. Its events are in the totals of the country.
- The place of an event can be approximate.