Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Guatemala department, Guatemala: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Guatemala departmentPopulation about 3,015,081 (Wikidata)

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a region page at 30 or more events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. This page has 26.

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Guatemala department, Guatemala in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 26 eventsP in Guatemala department, Guatemala. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 41P. The low estimate is 35 and the high estimate is 41P. UCDP counts 15P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Guatemala department holds 68 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Guatemala in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 13 events in Guatemala department. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 26P, which is up 100 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Guatemala as a whole went from 17 to 38P, which is up 124 percent. For the events in Guatemala department, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Guatemala.

Table 1. Guatemala department, Guatemala: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events0326
Estimated deaths, best estimate0541
Low estimate of deaths0235
High estimate of deaths0541
Deaths of civilians0115

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Guatemala department, Guatemala on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Guatemala department by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Guatemala department, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 26 events with 41 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Guatemala department: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP5P6P
Los Caradura4P5P
M1814P25P
MS-1316P28P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Guatemala department that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Guatemala department in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Amatitlán municipality1P1P
Chinautla municipality1P1P
Guatemala municipality14P26P
Mixco municipality3P4P
San Pedro Sacatepéquez municipality4P5P
Santa Catarina Pinula municipality1P1P
Villa Nueva municipality2P3P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Guatemala department: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict18P69%
One-sided violence against civilians8P31%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Guatemala department, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
August 20263P5PCandidate Events
July 20263P3PCandidate Events
June 20263P4PCandidate Events
May 20261P1PCandidate Events
April 20267P14PCandidate Events
March 20262P3PCandidate Events
January 20264P6PCandidate Events
December 202511GED
November 202511GED
October 202513GED
September 202533GED
August 202523GED
July 202518GED
May 202523GED
February 202511GED
December 202411GED
November 202421GED
October 202410GED
September 202421GED
August 202444GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Guatemala: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Guatemala department, Guatemala: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/guatemala/guatemala-department/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Guatemala department, Guatemala in September 2026?

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Guatemala department, Guatemala in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Guatemala department, Guatemala in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 41P. The low estimate is 35 and the high estimate is 41P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.