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Guatemala conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP, data through 31 Jul 2026. Updated automatically as new monthly releases are published. Population 18,687,881 (World Bank, 2025).
Recorded violence in Guatemala eased over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 3 events compared with 9 in the prior quarter (-67%). Estimated deaths: 4.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 32 events and 49 estimated deaths were recorded in Guatemala. That is +78% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 46 and 52. 59% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 22. Relative to population, that is 1.7 events per million people.
The most affected areas over the last 90 days were Guatemala department (2). Together they hold 67% of the period's events.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was M18 - Civilians (8 events, 11 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025May 2025
Events in Guatemala, last 90 days
Monthly trend
Most affected regions
| Region | Events, 90d | Change | Events, 12m | Deaths, 12m | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guatemala department | 2 | -78% | 23 | 37 | 10 Jun 2026 |
8 further first-level administrative areas had fewer than 5 recorded events in the last 12 months and are not listed separately.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | Guatemala municipality Guatemala department | MS-13 vs Civilians One-sided, 2 civilian | 2 0–2 |
| 25 May 2026 | Esquipulas municipality Chiquimula department | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 24 May 2026 | Guatemala municipality Guatemala department | M18 vs MS-13 Non-state, 2 sources | 1 0–1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| MS-13 | 15 | 26 |
| M18 | 15 | 25 |
| Unidentified armed group | 8 | 10 |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation | 5 | 7 |
| Sinaloa Cartel | 5 | 7 |
| Los Caradura | 3 | 4 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing (UCDP dyad) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| M18 - Civilians | 8 | 11 |
| M18 - MS-13 | 7 | 14 |
| MS-13 - Civilians | 5 | 8 |
| Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel | 5 | 7 |
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 4 | 5 |
| Los Caradura - MS-13 | 3 | 4 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 0 | 0% |
| Non-state conflict | 19 | 59% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 13 | 41% |
Long-run view: events per year
| Year | Events | Est. deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 7 | |
| 2017 | 1 | 7 | |
| 2018 | 2 | 4 | |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2022 | 8 | 19 | |
| 2023 | 4 | 23 | |
| 2024 | 34 | 42 | |
| 2025 | 22 | 38 | |
| 2026 (to date) | 16 | 27 |
Annual figures from the UCDP GED main release (through the last full year) plus Candidate Events for the current year, which are provisional.
Recent reports and news
Humanitarian reports (ReliefWeb)
- Guatemala: PAHO Regional Situation Report No.11: Measles in the Region of the Americas (11 September 2026) ReliefWeb, 14 Sep 2026
- Guatemala: Análisis conjunto preliminar sobre posibles impactos humanitarios del fenómeno El Niño (septiembre 2026) ReliefWeb, 9 Sep 2026
- Guatemala: PAHO Regional Situation Report No.10: Measles in the Region of the Americas (1 September 2026) ReliefWeb, 2 Sep 2026
- Guatemala: Regional Humanitarian Pooled Fund - LAC and Anticipatory Action | Response Activities per Municipality (As of 18 June 2026) ReliefWeb, 27 Aug 2026
- Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador: Regional Humanitarian Pooled Fund - LAC and Anticipatory Action | Response Activities per Municipality (As of 18 June 2026) ReliefWeb, 27 Aug 2026
- Guatemala - Monitoreo de Flujos (01 - 31 julio 2026) ReliefWeb, 23 Aug 2026
- WFP Guatemala Country Brief, August 2026 ReliefWeb, 20 Aug 2026
- Guatemala - Actualización de mensajes clave: Daños en cultivos de Primera se extienden en el Corredor Seco (Julio 2026 - Enero 2027) ReliefWeb, 12 Aug 2026
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Guatemala in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 32 organized-violence events in Guatemala between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 49 deaths (range 46 to 52).
Is violence in Guatemala increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (3) were down -67% from the preceding 90 days (9).
Which regions of Guatemala are most affected?
Over the last 90 days the most events were recorded in Guatemala department (2).
Who are the main armed actors in Guatemala?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were MS-13 (15 events), M18 (15 events), Unidentified armed group (8 events), Jalisco Cartel New Generation (5 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Guatemala?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Guatemala, 59% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Compare: Guatemala vs Haiti · Guatemala vs Costa Rica · Guatemala vs Argentina · Guatemala vs Venezuela
Monthly reports:Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025May 2025Feb 2025Dec 2024Nov 2024Oct 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Candidate Events for the current year are provisional and may be revised in the next annual GED release. See methodology.