Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

ConflictStats

Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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South Africa: events and estimated deaths in September 2026

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP Candidate Events, preliminaryData through

UCDP recorded 21 eventsP of organized violence in South Africa in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 76P. The low estimate is 74 and the high estimate is 76P. UCDP counts 46P of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for August 2026 was 17 eventsP.

The count for September 2025 was 3 events. The change from September 2025 to September 2026 is up 600 percentP. Among the 14 months with a report for South Africa, September 2026 has the highest count of events. South Africa holds 1 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in September 2026. In September 2025, the share was 0 percent.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. South Africa, September 2026: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsPEstimated deathsP
Gauteng province523
KwaZulu-Natal province315
Mpumalanga province12
Western Cape province1236

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 1. Events in South Africa, September 2026. The map shows 21 events with 76 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of South Africa has each event.

Table 2. South Africa, September 2026: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (3 of 21 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsPLowHigh
23 Sep 2026eThekwini municipality, KwaZulu-Natal provinceActor not identified by UCDP; CiviliansOne-sided121112
26 Sep 2026West Rand municipality, Gauteng provinceActor not identified by UCDP; CiviliansOne-sided181818
27 Sep 2026City of Cape Town municipality, Western Cape provinceActor not identified by UCDP; CiviliansOne-sided101010

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. South Africa: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of September 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP20P75P
Government of South Africa1P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. South Africa: events by type of violence, September 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict2P10%
Non-state conflict11P52%
One-sided violence against civilians8P38%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of South Africa, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202621P76PCandidate Events
August 202617P48PCandidate Events
July 202616P26PCandidate Events
June 202621P47PCandidate Events
May 20269P29PCandidate Events
April 20264P6PCandidate Events
March 202619P34PCandidate Events
February 202611P17PCandidate Events
January 202612P29PCandidate Events
October 202511GED
September 202533GED
August 202535GED
June 202548GED
September 202422GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

South Africa: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. South Africa: events and estimated deaths in September 2026. https://conflictstats.com/country/south-africa/month/2026-09/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.