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South Africa conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP, data through 31 Jul 2026. Updated automatically as new monthly releases are published. Population 64,747,319 (World Bank, 2025).
South Africa recorded 27 events and 44 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, roughly unchanged (0%) from the preceding 90-day period.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 65 events and 108 estimated deaths were recorded in South Africa. That is +983% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 107 and 111. 66% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 42. Relative to population, that is 1.0 events per million people.
The most affected areas over the last 90 days were Western Cape province (14), Gauteng province (7), KwaZulu-Natal province (4). Together they hold 93% of the period's events.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group (35 events, 56 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025Sep 2024
Events in South Africa, last 90 days
Monthly trend
Most affected regions
| Region | Events, 90d | Change | Events, 12m | Deaths, 12m | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Cape province | 14 | -44% | 49 | 85 | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Gauteng province | 7 | +600% | 8 | 15 | 25 Jul 2026 |
| KwaZulu-Natal province | 4 | new | 5 | 5 | 30 Jun 2026 |
3 further first-level administrative areas had fewer than 5 recorded events in the last 12 months and are not listed separately.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | Gauteng province | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 4 civilian | 4 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state | 4 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | CATA vs Codeta Non-state | 4 |
| 10 Jul 2026 | Ekurhuleni municipality Gauteng province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 3 civilian | 3 |
| 25 Jun 2026 | City of Johannesburg municipality Gauteng province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 3 |
| 29 May 2026 | Eden district municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 3 civilian | 3 3–6 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | West Coast municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state, 2 civilian | 2 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 2 civilian | 2 |
| 23 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Government of South Africa vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian, 3 sources | 1 0–1 |
| 23 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group | 73 | 126 |
| March and March, Operation Dudula | 11 | 16 |
| CATA | 7 | 12 |
| Codeta | 7 | 12 |
| Government of South Africa | 5 | 5 |
| Fancy Boys Gang | 2 | 3 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing (UCDP dyad) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 35 | 56 |
| March and March, Operation Dudula - Civilians | 11 | 16 |
| CATA - Codeta | 7 | 12 |
| Government of South Africa - Civilians | 5 | 5 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 3 | 14 |
| Fancy Boys Gang - Terrible Josters Gang | 1 | 2 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 3 | 5% |
| Non-state conflict | 43 | 66% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 19 | 29% |
Long-run view: events per year
| Year | Events | Est. deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 3 | |
| 2018 | 3 | 12 | |
| 2019 | 6 | 8 | |
| 2020 | 19 | 31 | |
| 2021 | 12 | 123 | |
| 2022 | 4 | 4 | |
| 2023 | 5 | 5 | |
| 2024 | 3 | 3 | |
| 2025 | 11 | 17 | |
| 2026 (to date) | 58 | 99 |
Annual figures from the UCDP GED main release (through the last full year) plus Candidate Events for the current year, which are provisional.
Recent reports and news
Humanitarian reports (ReliefWeb)
- South Africa: UNAIDS, SADC and China, partner to advance local pharmaceutical manufacturing and health security in Southern Africa ReliefWeb, 1 Sep 2026
- Anti-migrant violence in South Africa: MSF warns of growing humanitarian needs and access to healthcare disruptions ReliefWeb, 10 Jul 2026
- Joint statement by the Committee on the Rights of the Child and UNICEF on the plight of migrant children in South Africa ReliefWeb, 30 Jun 2026
- WHO South Africa 2025 Annual Report ReliefWeb, 17 Jun 2026
- WHO applauds South Africa’s leadership in advancing HIV prevention through lenacapavir rollout ReliefWeb, 15 Jun 2026
- UNHCR South Africa MCO: 2026 Funding Update (as of 31 May 2026) ReliefWeb, 9 Jun 2026
- Joint Statement by the WHO and FAO in South Africa on World Food Safety Day 2026: From burden to solutions – safe food everywhere ReliefWeb, 8 Jun 2026
- South Africa: Minister John Steenhuisen calls on provinces to speed up vaccinations ReliefWeb, 27 May 2026
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in South Africa in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 65 organized-violence events in South Africa between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 108 deaths (range 107 to 111).
Is violence in South Africa increasing or decreasing?
Broadly stable. Events in the last 90 days (27) were within 20% of the preceding 90 days (27).
Which regions of South Africa are most affected?
Over the last 90 days the most events were recorded in Western Cape province (14), Gauteng province (7), KwaZulu-Natal province (4).
Who are the main armed actors in South Africa?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Unidentified armed group (73 events), March and March, Operation Dudula (11 events), CATA (7 events), Codeta (7 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in South Africa?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In South Africa, 66% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Compare: South Africa vs Niger · South Africa vs Mozambique · South Africa vs South Sudan · South Africa vs Central African Republic
Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Candidate Events for the current year are provisional and may be revised in the next annual GED release. See methodology.