Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 64,747,319 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 21 eventsP of organized violence in South Africa in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 76P. The low estimate is 74 and the high estimate is 76P. The count for August 2026 was 17 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 131 eventsP in South Africa. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 313P. The low estimate is 308 and the high estimate is 316P. UCDP counts 105P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, South Africa has the 26th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, South Africa has the 10th highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 10 events in South Africa. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 131P, which is up 1210 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 8 percentP of the events in South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. South Africa: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events2117131
Estimated deaths, best estimate7648313
Low estimate of deaths7448308
High estimate of deaths7648316
Deaths of civilians466105

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 76 estimated deaths in South Africa in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 48 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 131 events in South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 (preliminary). The count for the 12 months to 31 Aug 2026 was 78 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in South Africa by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in South Africa by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in South Africa, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 53 events with 149 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of South Africa with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Gauteng province25P76P26 Sep 2026
KwaZulu-Natal province10P23P23 Sep 2026
Western Cape province89P197P30 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 3 regions of South Africa have a page. 3 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. South Africa: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP100P268P
Americans4P5P
Black Axe11
CATA2P7P
Codeta2P7P
Dollar Kids1P2P
Fancy Boys4P6P
Government of South Africa8P8P
Hard Livings1P1P
Junky Funky Kids1P2P
March and March, Operation Dudula12P17P
NTKs3P4P
OTF1P2P
SVC11
Terrible Josters1P2P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. South Africa: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP79P191P
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians21P77P
Americans - Fancy Boys1P1P
Americans - NTKs3P4P
Black Axe - SVC11
CATA - Codeta2P7P
Dollar Kids - OTF1P2P
Fancy Boys - Hard Livings1P1P
Fancy Boys - Junky Funky Kids1P2P
Fancy Boys - Terrible Josters1P2P
Government of South Africa - Civilians8P8P
March and March, Operation Dudula - Civilians12P17P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. South Africa: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict10P8%
Non-state conflict80P61%
One-sided violence against civilians41P31%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. South Africa: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
201633GED
2018312GED
201968GED
20201931GED
202112123GED
202244GED
202355GED
202433GED
20251117GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026130P312PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of South Africa, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202621P76PCandidate Events
August 202617P48PCandidate Events
July 202616P26PCandidate Events
June 202621P47PCandidate Events
May 20269P29PCandidate Events
April 20264P6PCandidate Events
March 202619P34PCandidate Events
February 202611P17PCandidate Events
January 202612P29PCandidate Events
October 202511GED
September 202533GED
August 202535GED
June 202548GED
September 202422GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Africa

Comparisons

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/south-africa/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 2 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in South Africa in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 21 eventsP of organized violence in South Africa in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 17 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 313P. The low estimate is 308 and the high estimate is 316P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of South Africa as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 143 rows. Download the events (CSV)