Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Kabul province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Kabul provincePopulation about 5,766,181 (Wikidata)

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a region page at 30 or more events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. This page has 14.

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Kabul province, Afghanistan in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 2P. The low estimate is 0 and the high estimate is 6P. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 14 eventsP in Kabul province, Afghanistan. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 295P. The low estimate is 113 and the high estimate is 451P. UCDP counts 291P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 13 regions of Afghanistan with a page, Kabul province has the 5th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Kabul province holds 7 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 29 events in Kabul province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 14P, which is down 52 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Afghanistan as a whole went from 186 to 189P, which is up 2 percent.

Table 1. Kabul province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events3314
Estimated deaths, best estimate21295
Low estimate of deaths01113
High estimate of deaths64451
Deaths of civilians21291

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Kabul province, Afghanistan on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

02.55Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Kabul province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Kabul province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 14 events with 295 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Kabul province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
AFF4P0P
ARF1P0P
Government of Afghanistan12P284P
Government of Pakistan4P284P
IS1P8P
TTP211

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Kabul province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Kabul province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Bagrami district1P4P
Dih Sabz district1P0P
Kabul district11P289P
Surobi district1P2P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Kabul province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict10P71%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians4P29%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Kabul province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20263P2PCandidate Events
August 20263P1PCandidate Events
June 20261P0PCandidate Events
March 20262P273PCandidate Events
January 20261P8PCandidate Events
October 2025411GED
August 202530GED
July 202531GED
June 202512GED
March 202540GED
February 202524GED
January 202510GED
December 202459GED
November 202452GED
October 202451GED
September 202469GED
August 202492GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Afghanistan: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Kabul province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/afghanistan/kabul-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Kabul province, Afghanistan in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Kabul province, Afghanistan in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 3 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Kabul province, Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 295P. The low estimate is 113 and the high estimate is 451P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.