Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 43,844,111 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 19 eventsP of organized violence in Afghanistan in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 134P. The low estimate is 71 and the high estimate is 183P. The count for August 2026 was 26 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 189 eventsP in Afghanistan. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 1,033P. The low estimate is 632 and the high estimate is 2,866P. UCDP counts 632P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Afghanistan has the 22nd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Asia, Afghanistan has the 3rd highest count of events of the 9 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 186 events in Afghanistan. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 189P, which is up 2 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 1 percentP of the events in Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 24 percentP.

Table 1. Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1926189
Estimated deaths, best estimate134311,033
Low estimate of deaths7142632
High estimate of deaths1831242,866
Deaths of civilians223632

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 19 events in Afghanistan in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 26 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 134 estimated deaths in Afghanistan in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 31 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Afghanistan by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
0250500Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Afghanistan by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Afghanistan, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 51 events with 174 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Afghanistan with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Badakhshan province19P30P28 Sep 2026
Baghlan province8P8P28 Aug 2026
Hilmand province5P30P30 Sep 2026
Hirat province8P17P4 Sep 2026
Kabul province14P295P22 Sep 2026
Kandahar province16P109P24 Sep 2026
Khost province15P67P9 Jun 2026
Kunar province29P112P30 Sep 2026
Kunduz province5P0P30 Jun 2026
Nangarhar province14P45P16 Aug 2026
Paktika province11P50P27 Sep 2026
Paktya province6P46P29 Sep 2026
Takhar province4P1P27 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 13 regions of Afghanistan have a page. 15 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Afghanistan: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
AFF23P71P
ARF1P0P
AUF7P3P
Government of Afghanistan174P875P
Government of Pakistan104P892P
Group named for a person (name not shown)3P15P
Hazara1P1P
IMP117
IS6P27P
Kochi1P1P
NMF1P1P
NRF15P15P
Sepahiyan-e Mihan1P1P
TTP11P128P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Afghanistan: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Government of Afghanistan - AFF23P71P
Government of Afghanistan - ARF1P0P
Government of Afghanistan - AUF7P3P
Government of Afghanistan - Civilians27P7P
Government of Afghanistan - Government of Pakistan91P747P
Government of Afghanistan - Group named for a person (name not shown)3P15P
Government of Afghanistan - IS5P15P
Government of Afghanistan - NMF1P1P
Government of Afghanistan - NRF15P15P
Government of Afghanistan - Sepahiyan-e Mihan1P1P
Government of Pakistan - Civilians10
Government of Pakistan - IMP117
Government of Pakistan - TTP11P128P
Hazara - Kochi1P1P
IS - Civilians1P12P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Afghanistan: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict159P84%
Non-state conflict1P1%
One-sided violence against civilians29P15%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
20172,48219,784GED
20183,72426,895GED
20194,68230,435GED
20203,31720,834GED
20214,51236,386GED
20224411,653GED
2023196379GED
2024237357GED
2025153332GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026162P854PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Afghanistan, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202619P134PCandidate Events
August 202626P31PCandidate Events
July 20266P9PCandidate Events
June 202615P51PCandidate Events
May 20265P8PCandidate Events
April 202615P38PCandidate Events
March 202646P390PCandidate Events
February 202624P181PCandidate Events
January 20266P12PCandidate Events
December 202556GED
November 2025721GED
October 202515152GED
September 2025611GED
August 20251716GED
July 20251011GED
June 20251424GED
May 2025818GED
April 20251418GED
March 2025138GED
February 20252131GED
January 20252316GED
December 20242494GED
November 20241821GED
October 20241812GED
September 20242546GED
August 20241917GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Asia

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Afghanistan who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees2,671,560
Asylum seekers270,007

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/afghanistan/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 4.3 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Afghanistan in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 19 eventsP of organized violence in Afghanistan in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 26 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 1,033P. The low estimate is 632 and the high estimate is 2,866P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Afghanistan as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 400 rows. Download the events (CSV)