Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Nangarhar province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Nangarhar provincePopulation about 1,735,531 (Wikidata)

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a region page at 30 or more events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. This page has 14.

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 14 eventsP in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 45P. The low estimate is 65 and the high estimate is 140P. UCDP counts 30P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 13 regions of Afghanistan with a page, Nangarhar province has the 5th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Nangarhar province holds 7 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 12 events in Nangarhar province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 14P, which is up 17 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Afghanistan as a whole went from 186 to 189P, which is up 2 percent.

Table 1. Nangarhar province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events0114
Estimated deaths, best estimate0045
Low estimate of deaths02565
High estimate of deaths025140
Deaths of civilians0030

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Nangarhar province, Afghanistan on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Nangarhar province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Nangarhar province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 14 events with 45 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Nangarhar province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Afghanistan13P27P
Government of Pakistan10P45P
IS1P0P
TTP1P18P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Nangarhar province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Nangarhar province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Achin district2P2P
Bihsud district1P18P
Jalalabad district1P0P
Khogyani district1P1P
Lal Pur district1P1P
Muhmand Dara district3P7P
Rodat district1P0P
Shinwar district (Ghani Khel)1P2P
Surkh Rod district1P0P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Nangarhar province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict11P79%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians3P21%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Nangarhar province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
August 20261P0PCandidate Events
June 20261P0PCandidate Events
May 20261P0PCandidate Events
April 20261P0PCandidate Events
March 20266P22PCandidate Events
February 20263P21PCandidate Events
October 202512GED
August 2025510GED
July 202511GED
June 202514GED
March 202511GED
January 202532GED
November 202410GED
September 202434GED
August 202429GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Afghanistan: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Nangarhar province, Afghanistan: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/afghanistan/nangarhar-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan in September 2026?

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Nangarhar province, Afghanistan in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 45P. The low estimate is 65 and the high estimate is 140P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.