Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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AFC: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 408 eventsP that involve AFC in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 2,068P.

The low estimate is 1,493 and the high estimate is 9,164P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 2 countries.

Among the 133 actors with a page, AFC has the 24th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. AFC is one of the two sides in 2 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 500 events that involve AFC. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 408P, which is down 18 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 51 percentP of the events that involve AFC in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for AFC on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve AFC, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve AFC, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 202626P75P
Aug 202626P69P
Jul 202636P126P
Jun 202636P179P
May 202639P189P
Apr 202621P153P
Mar 202624P113P
Feb 202613P54P
Jan 202624P229P
Dec 202577499
Nov 202543267
Oct 202543115
Sep 20252982
Aug 202535121
Jul 202539438
Jun 202545120
May 202545380
Apr 202544127
Mar 202568295
Feb 202534179
Jan 20251083,783
Dec 20241864
Nov 20241577
Oct 20242081

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve AFC, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Burundi1P1P
DR Congo407P2,067P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve AFC, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Bujumbura provinceBurundi1P
Nord Kivu provinceDR Congo193P
Sud Kivu provinceDR Congo212P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve AFC, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 408 events with 2,068 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve AFC, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
FDLR-FOCA6P14P
FDLR-FOCA, VDP6P36P
Government of DR Congo (Zaire)209P991P
VDP128P572P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. AFC: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict209P51%
Non-state conflict140P34%
One-sided violence against civilians59P14%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. AFC: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/afc/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve AFC did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 408 eventsP that involve AFC in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in Burundi and DR Congo.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.