Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Manabí province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Manabí provincePopulation about 1,592,840 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 8 eventsP of organized violence in Manabí province, Ecuador in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 10P. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 68 eventsP in Manabí province, Ecuador. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 190P. The low estimate is 183 and the high estimate is 202P. UCDP counts 8P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 7 regions of Ecuador with a page, Manabí province has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Manabí province holds 17 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 263 events in Manabí province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 68P, which is down 74 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Ecuador as a whole went from 379 to 389P, which is up 3 percent. For the events in Manabí province, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Ecuador.

Table 1. Manabí province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events81268
Estimated deaths, best estimate1022190
Low estimate of deaths1022183
High estimate of deaths1022202
Deaths of civilians308

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Manabí province, Ecuador on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Manabí province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Manabí province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 68 events with 190 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Manabí province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP35P116P
Los Choneros33P74P
Los Lobos33P74P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Manabí province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Manabí province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Cantón El Carmen3P4P
Cantón Jama2P10P
Cantón Manta25P28P
Cantón Montecristi7P13P
Cantón Pedernales5P13P
Cantón Portoviejo10P19P
Cantón Puerto López1P5P
Cantón Rocafuerte2P3P
Cantón San Vicente2P7P
Cantón Sucre5P13P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Manabí province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict62P91%
One-sided violence against civilians6P9%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Manabí province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20268P10PCandidate Events
August 202612P22PCandidate Events
July 20262P3PCandidate Events
June 20262P3PCandidate Events
April 20267P8PCandidate Events
March 202610P10PCandidate Events
February 20267P21PCandidate Events
January 202610P84PCandidate Events
December 2025723GED
November 202536GED
September 20251214GED
August 20251627GED
July 20251734GED
June 2025145GED
May 20254131GED
April 20251829GED
March 20251710GED
February 20252026GED
January 20255140GED
December 20242135GED
November 20241217GED
October 20242424GED
September 20241510GED
August 20241418GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ecuador: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Manabí province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ecuador/manabi-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Manabí province, Ecuador in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 8 eventsP of organized violence in Manabí province, Ecuador in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Manabí province, Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 190P. The low estimate is 183 and the high estimate is 202P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.