Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 18,289,896 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 49 eventsP of organized violence in Ecuador in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 69P. The low estimate is 69 and the high estimate is 70P. The count for August 2026 was 43 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 389 eventsP in Ecuador. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 763P. The low estimate is 755 and the high estimate is 780P. UCDP counts 51P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Ecuador has the 19th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Americas, Ecuador has the 4th highest count of events of the 11 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 379 events in Ecuador. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 389P, which is up 3 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 93 percentP of the events in Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 24 percentP.

Table 1. Ecuador: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events4943389
Estimated deaths, best estimate6985763
Low estimate of deaths6985755
High estimate of deaths7085780
Deaths of civilians11051

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 389 events in Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 (preliminary). The count for the 12 months to 31 Aug 2026 was 136 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Ecuador by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Ecuador by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Ecuador, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 121 events with 190 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Ecuador with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
El Oro province72P159P30 Sep 2026
Esmeraldas province21P24P3 Aug 2026
Guayas province164P278P29 Sep 2026
Los Ríos province14P30P6 Sep 2026
Manabí province68P190P29 Sep 2026
Pichincha province10P13P13 Sep 2026
Santa Elena province28P39P30 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 7 regions of Ecuador have a page. 6 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Ecuador: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP329P589P
Fatales, Los Aguilas2P4P
Government of Ecuador1P1P
Latin Kings5P10P
Los Aguilas4P4P
Los Chone Killers5P10P
Los Choneros37P84P
Los Lagartos1P1P
Los Lobos45P147P
Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones4P6P
Los Lobos Box131
Los Saobox6P29P
Los Tiguerones2P2P
Los Tiguerones - Fenix faction1P1P
Los Tiguerones - Igualitos faction1P1P
Los Tiguerones Fenix faction16
Los Tiguerones Igualitos faction16
Mafia 181P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Ecuador: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP304P552P
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians25P37P
Fatales, Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones2P4P
Government of Ecuador - Civilians1P1P
Los Aguilas - Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones2P2P
Los Aguilas - Los Tiguerones2P2P
Los Chone Killers - Latin Kings5P10P
Los Choneros - Los Lobos37P84P
Los Lagartos - Mafia 181P1P
Los Lobos - Civilians1P3P
Los Lobos - Los Lobos Box131
Los Lobos - Los Saobox6P29P
Los Tiguerones - Fenix faction - Los Tiguerones - Igualitos faction1P1P
Los Tiguerones Fenix faction - Los Tiguerones Igualitos faction16

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Ecuador: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict1Punder 1%
Non-state conflict361P93%
One-sided violence against civilians27P7%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Ecuador: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
200712GED
2008353GED
201912GED
2020111GED
20218291GED
202211118GED
2023454540GED
2024245341GED
2025252439GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026371P678PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Ecuador, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202649P69PCandidate Events
August 202643P85PCandidate Events
July 202633P40PCandidate Events
June 202624P27PCandidate Events
May 202628P33PCandidate Events
April 202643P89PCandidate Events
March 202663P101PCandidate Events
February 202630P67PCandidate Events
January 202658P167PCandidate Events
December 2025836GED
November 2025644GED
October 202545GED
September 20251552GED
August 20252039GED
July 20252163GED
June 2025157GED
May 20254436GED
April 20252038GED
March 20251936GED
February 20252334GED
January 20255749GED
December 20245988GED
November 20245658GED
October 20243041GED
September 20241613GED
August 20242130GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Americas

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Ecuador who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees5,723
Asylum seekers122,060

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ecuador/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 21.3 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Ecuador in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 49 eventsP of organized violence in Ecuador in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 43 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 763P. The low estimate is 755 and the high estimate is 780P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Ecuador as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 784 rows. Download the events (CSV)