Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Guayas province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Guayas provincePopulation about 4,391,923 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Guayas province, Ecuador in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 16P. The count for August 2026 was 16 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 164 eventsP in Guayas province, Ecuador. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 278P. The low estimate is 277 and the high estimate is 280P. UCDP counts 23P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 7 regions of Ecuador with a page, Guayas province has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Guayas province holds 42 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 51 events in Guayas province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 164P, which is up 222 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Ecuador as a whole went from 379 to 389P, which is up 3 percent. For the events in Guayas province, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Ecuador.

Table 1. Guayas province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1116164
Estimated deaths, best estimate1627278
Low estimate of deaths1627277
High estimate of deaths1627280
Deaths of civilians1023

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 11 events in Guayas province, Ecuador, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 16 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Guayas province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Guayas province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 164 events with 278 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Guayas province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP149P251P
Fatales, Los Aguilas2P4P
Government of Ecuador1P1P
Latin Kings5P10P
Los Aguilas4P4P
Los Chone Killers5P10P
Los Lagartos1P1P
Los Lobos , Los Tiguerones4P6P
Los Tiguerones2P2P
Los Tiguerones - Fenix faction1P1P
Los Tiguerones - Igualitos faction1P1P
Los Tiguerones Fenix faction16
Los Tiguerones Igualitos faction16
Mafia 181P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Guayas province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Guayas province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Cantón Daule7P8P
Cantón Durán17P31P
Cantón Guayaquil116P178P
Cantón Lomas De Sargentillo3P7P
Cantón Milagro2P2P
Cantón Nobol2P2P
Cantón Playas3P10P
Cantón Salitre2P2P
Cantón Samborondón3P7P
Cantón Santa Lucía3P4P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Guayas province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict153P93%
One-sided violence against civilians11P7%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Guayas province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202611P16PCandidate Events
August 202616P27PCandidate Events
July 202615P21PCandidate Events
June 20266P6PCandidate Events
May 202612P13PCandidate Events
April 202614P37PCandidate Events
March 202639P64PCandidate Events
February 202613P28PCandidate Events
January 202634P59PCandidate Events
November 202516GED
October 202531GED
August 202538GED
July 2025429GED
June 202512GED
May 202535GED
April 202516GED
March 2025226GED
February 202527GED
January 202569GED
December 20241734GED
November 20241114GED
October 202414GED
August 202444GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ecuador: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Guayas province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ecuador/guayas-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Guayas province, Ecuador in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 11 eventsP of organized violence in Guayas province, Ecuador in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 16 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Guayas province, Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 278P. The low estimate is 277 and the high estimate is 280P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.