Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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El Oro province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: El Oro provincePopulation about 714,592 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 16 eventsP of organized violence in El Oro province, Ecuador in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 20P. The low estimate is 20 and the high estimate is 21P. The count for August 2026 was 5 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 72 eventsP in El Oro province, Ecuador. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 159P. The low estimate is 159 and the high estimate is 161P. UCDP counts 10P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 7 regions of Ecuador with a page, El Oro province has the 2nd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. El Oro province holds 19 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 28 events in El Oro province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 72P, which is up 157 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Ecuador as a whole went from 379 to 389P, which is up 3 percent. For the events in El Oro province, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Ecuador.

Table 1. El Oro province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events16572
Estimated deaths, best estimate2014159
Low estimate of deaths2014159
High estimate of deaths2114161
Deaths of civilians3010

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 16 events in El Oro province, Ecuador, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 5 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in El Oro province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in El Oro province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 72 events with 159 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. El Oro province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP65P99P
Los Lobos7P60P
Los Lobos Box131
Los Saobox6P29P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in El Oro province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of El Oro province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Cantón Arenillas4P8P
Cantón Guabo8P15P
Cantón Huaquillas7P8P
Cantón Machala38P106P
Cantón Pasaje7P9P
Cantón Portovelo2P4P
Cantón Santa Rosa6P9P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. El Oro province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict69P96%
One-sided violence against civilians3P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of El Oro province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202616P20PCandidate Events
August 20265P14PCandidate Events
July 202613P13PCandidate Events
June 20267P7PCandidate Events
May 202612P16PCandidate Events
April 20264P13PCandidate Events
March 20263P7PCandidate Events
February 20265P11PCandidate Events
January 20264P10PCandidate Events
December 2025113GED
November 2025131GED
October 202514GED
September 2025114GED
August 202514GED
April 202513GED
December 20241017GED
November 20241218GED
October 2024310GED
September 202413GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ecuador: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. El Oro province, Ecuador: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ecuador/el-oro-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in El Oro province, Ecuador in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 16 eventsP of organized violence in El Oro province, Ecuador in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 5 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For El Oro province, Ecuador in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 159P. The low estimate is 159 and the high estimate is 161P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.