Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Tehran province, Iran: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Tehran provincePopulation about 13,422,366 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Tehran province, Iran in September 2026. UCDP recorded no eventsP in August 2026.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 80 eventsP in Tehran province, Iran. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 638P. The low estimate is 627 and the high estimate is 750P. UCDP counts 225P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 20 regions of Iran with a page, Tehran province has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Tehran province holds 15 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Iran in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 10 events in Tehran province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 80P, which is up 700 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Iran as a whole went from 84 to 519P, which is up 518 percent. For the events in Tehran province, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Iran.

Table 1. Tehran province, Iran: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events0080
Estimated deaths, best estimate00638
Low estimate of deaths00627
High estimate of deaths00750
Deaths of civilians00225

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Tehran province, Iran on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Tehran province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Tehran province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 80 events with 638 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Tehran province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Afghanistan12
Government of Iran79P636P
Government of Israel, Government of United States of America77P433P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Tehran province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Tehran province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Baharestan county5P51P
Pardis county1P6P
Qarchak county2P3P
Qods county2P5P
Ray county5P19P
Robat Karim county1P4P
Shahriar county3P12P
Shemiranat county1P3P
Tehran county53P504P
Varamin county3P19P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Tehran province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict77P96%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians3P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Tehran province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
June 20261P2PCandidate Events
April 202615P88PCandidate Events
March 202652P270PCandidate Events
February 20269P73PCandidate Events
January 20262P203PCandidate Events
December 202512GED
June 20259172GED
October 202414GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Iran: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Tehran province, Iran: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/iran/tehran-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Tehran province, Iran in September 2026?

UCDP recorded no eventsP of organized violence in Tehran province, Iran in September 2026. UCDP recorded no eventsP in August 2026.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Tehran province, Iran in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 638P. The low estimate is 627 and the high estimate is 750P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.