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Mandera county, Kenya: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Mandera county, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 867,457 (Wikidata).
Between 3 May 2026 and 31 Jul 2026, UCDP recorded 8 organized-violence events in Mandera county, Kenya, up +700% from 1 in the preceding 90 days. Estimated deaths in the period: 24.
The 12-month total for Mandera county stands at 10 events and 26 estimated deaths. That is roughly the same as the 12 months before. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 25 and 51. 70% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 6. Relative to population, that is 11.5 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Kenya - Al-Shabaab (7 events, 18 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Jul 2025Jun 2025Apr 2025Feb 2025Dec 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024
Events in Mandera county, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Mandera county, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Banissa constituency | 2 | 12 |
| Mandera South constituency | 2 | 6 |
| Lafey constituency | 2 | 0 |
| Mandera East constituency | 1 | 6 |
45,513 internally displaced people recorded in Mandera as of 31 Dec 2024. Source: IOM DTM via HDX HAPI.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | Banissa constituency Mandera county | Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 11 |
| 9 May 2026 | Mandera East constituency Mandera county | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 6 civilian, 3 sources | 6 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Mandera South constituency Mandera county | Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 5 5–15 |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Banissa constituency Mandera county | Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) vs Marehan subclan (Darod) Non-state, 2 sources | 1 |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Mandera South constituency Mandera county | Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) vs Marehan subclan (Darod) Non-state | 1 0–1 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Lafey constituency Mandera county | Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–7 |
| 24 Jul 2026 | Lafey constituency Mandera county | Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources | 0 0–5 |
| 23 Jun 2026 | Mandera county | Government of Kenya vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–2 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Kenya | 7 | 18 |
| Al-Shabaab | 7 | 18 |
| Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) | 2 | 2 |
| Marehan subclan (Darod) | 2 | 2 |
| Unidentified armed group | 1 | 6 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Kenya - Al-Shabaab | 7 | 18 |
| Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) - Marehan subclan (Darod) | 2 | 2 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 1 | 6 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 7 | 70% |
| Non-state conflict | 2 | 20% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 1 | 10% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Mandera county in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 10 organized-violence events in Mandera county between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 26 deaths (range 25 to 51).
Is violence in Mandera county increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (8) were up +700% on the preceding 90 days (1).
Who are the main armed actors in Mandera county?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Government of Kenya (7 events), Al-Shabaab (7 events), Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) (2 events), Marehan subclan (Darod) (2 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Mandera county?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Mandera county, 70% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Jul 2025Jun 2025Apr 2025Feb 2025Dec 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Kenya
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.