Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Kenya: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 57,532,493 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 2 eventsP of organized violence in Kenya in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 3P. The low estimate is 3 and the high estimate is 33P. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 48 eventsP in Kenya. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 71P. The low estimate is 67 and the high estimate is 169P. UCDP counts 17P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Kenya has the 36th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, Kenya has the 15th highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 29 events in Kenya. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 48P, which is up 66 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 73 percentP of the events in Kenya in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Kenya: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events2248
Estimated deaths, best estimate3071
Low estimate of deaths3067
High estimate of deaths333169
Deaths of civilians0017

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Kenya on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Kenya by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Kenya by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Kenya, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 9 events with 19 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Kenya with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Garissa county19P7P21 Sep 2026
Mandera county10P26P28 Jul 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 2 regions of Kenya have a page. 9 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Kenya: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP10P28P
Al-Shabaab31P25P
Dassanetch12
Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle)2P2P
Government of Kenya30P24P
Kamba3P12P
Marehan subclan (Darod)2P2P
Somali3P12P
Turkana12

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Kenya: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP7P16P
Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians3P12P
Al-Shabaab - Civilians2P3P
Dassanetch - Turkana12
Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) - Marehan subclan (Darod)2P2P
Government of Kenya - Al-Shabaab29P22P
Government of Kenya - Civilians1P2P
Kamba - Somali3P12P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Kenya: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict35P73%
Non-state conflict7P15%
One-sided violence against civilians6P13%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Kenya: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
2017107228GED
201869164GED
201951188GED
202065151GED
202154135GED
202231101GED
202357224GED
202430112GED
20253180GED
2026, to 30 Sep 202640P66PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Kenya, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20262P3PCandidate Events
August 20262P0PCandidate Events
July 20265P16PCandidate Events
June 20268P11PCandidate Events
May 20267P18PCandidate Events
April 20263P7PCandidate Events
March 20264P7PCandidate Events
February 20262P0PCandidate Events
January 20267P4PCandidate Events
December 202540GED
November 202524GED
October 202521GED
September 202511GED
August 202527GED
July 202545GED
June 2025612GED
May 202514GED
April 2025311GED
March 202529GED
February 2025321GED
January 202515GED
December 202411GED
November 202414GED
October 2024417GED
September 2024313GED
August 202423GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Africa

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Kenya who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees13,325
Asylum seekers7,773

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Kenya: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/kenya/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 0.8 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Kenya in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 2 eventsP of organized violence in Kenya in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Kenya in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 71P. The low estimate is 67 and the high estimate is 169P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Kenya as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 80 rows. Download the events (CSV)