Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Al-Shabaab: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 393 eventsP that involve Al-Shabaab in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 3,360P.

The low estimate is 3,345 and the high estimate is 4,037P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 2 countries.

Among the 133 actors with a page, Al-Shabaab has the 25th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Al-Shabaab is one of the two sides in 2 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 253 events that involve Al-Shabaab. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 393P, which is up 55 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 96 percentP of the events that involve Al-Shabaab in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for Al-Shabaab on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve Al-Shabaab, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve Al-Shabaab, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 202619P77P
Aug 202637P80P
Jul 202649P334P
Jun 202629P329P
May 202622P323P
Apr 202631P282P
Mar 202627P156P
Feb 202638P228P
Jan 202648P970P
Dec 202537245
Nov 202521218
Oct 202535118
Sep 202521155
Aug 202527327
Jul 202534175
Jun 202541354
May 202530438
Apr 202523182
Mar 202527528
Feb 202511234
Jan 2025667
Dec 2024679
Nov 202412110
Oct 202415280

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve Al-Shabaab, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Kenya31P25P
Somalia362P3,335P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve Al-Shabaab, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Banaadir regionSomalia16P
Bay regionSomalia37P
Garissa countyKenya19P
Hiran regionSomalia53P
Lower Juba regionSomalia34P
Lower Shabelle regionSomalia98P
Middle Juba regionSomalia33P
Middle Shabelle regionSomalia61P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve Al-Shabaab, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 393 events with 3,360 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve Al-Shabaab, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Kenya30P22P
Government of Somalia347P3,288P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Al-Shabaab: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict377P96%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians16P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Al-Shabaab: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/al-shabaab/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve Al-Shabaab did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 393 eventsP that involve Al-Shabaab in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in Kenya and Somalia.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.