KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP
Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a region page at 30 or more events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. This page has 10.
UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 15P. The low estimate is 14 and the high estimate is 15P. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.
In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 10 eventsP in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 23P. The low estimate is 22 and the high estimate is 23P. UCDP counts 16P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.
Among the 3 regions of South Africa with a page, KwaZulu-Natal province has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. KwaZulu-Natal province holds 8 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded no events in KwaZulu-Natal province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 10P, which is up from no events. Over the same periods, the count for South Africa as a whole went from 10 to 131P, which is up 1210 percent.
| Figure | September 2026P | August 2026P | 12 months to 30 Sep 2026P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Events | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Estimated deaths, best estimate | 15 | 1 | 23 |
| Low estimate of deaths | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| High estimate of deaths | 15 | 1 | 23 |
| Deaths of civilians | 12 | 0 | 16 |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.
An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .
This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.
The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.
Since the last update
The log has no change for KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data
24 months
Actors, as UCDP names them
Names as UCDP writes them.
| Name, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths in these events |
|---|---|---|
| Actor not identified by UCDP | 5P | 18P |
| Black Axe | 1 | 1 |
| March and March, Operation Dudula | 4P | 4P |
| SVC | 1 | 1 |
An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Second-level areas
The areas in KwaZulu-Natal province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.
| Area, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths |
|---|---|---|
| eThekwini municipality | 4P | 15P |
| Ugu municipality | 1P | 2P |
| uMgungundlovu municipality | 1P | 1P |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Type of violence
| Type of violence | Events | Share of events |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 3P | 30% |
| Non-state conflict | 2P | 20% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 5P | 50% |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.
Monthly reports
One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.
| Month | Events | Estimated deaths | Dataset |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3P | 15P | Candidate Events |
| August 2026 | 1P | 1P | Candidate Events |
| June 2026 | 4P | 4P | Candidate Events |
| January 2026 | 1P | 2P | Candidate Events |
| October 2025 | 1 | 1 | GED |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.
Other regions of South Africa
Official channels
- UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia: South AfricaThe page of this country in the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia.
- UCDP DefinitionsThe definitions that UCDP uses.
- UCDP Dataset Download CenterThe UCDP datasets, the codebooks and the citation of each dataset.
These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .
Cite and download
ConflictStats. KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/south-africa/kwazulu-natal-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .
The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.
- Events of South Africa (CSV)The column admin1 holds the region.
- Monthly reports of KwaZulu-Natal province (RSS)The 12 newest monthly reports.
Questions
How many events did UCDP record in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa in September 2026?
UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.
How does UCDP count deaths?
UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 23P. The low estimate is 22 and the high estimate is 23P.
Are the figures of the latest months final?
No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.