Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Black Axe: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 55 eventsP that involve Black Axe in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 95P.

The low estimate is 82 and the high estimate is 99P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 2 countries.

Among the 133 actors with a page, Black Axe has the 63rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Black Axe is one of the two sides in 0 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 57 events that involve Black Axe. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 55P, which is down 4 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 96 percentP of the events that involve Black Axe in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 24 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for Black Axe on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve Black Axe, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve Black Axe, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 20262P2P
Aug 20264P6P
Jul 20262P2P
Jun 20267P12P
May 20268P21P
Apr 20263P6P
Mar 20266P10P
Feb 20263P4P
Jan 20265P7P
Dec 202548
Nov 202537
Oct 2025810
Sep 2025817
Aug 202546
Jul 202569
Jun 202544
May 202534
Apr 2025716
Mar 202557
Feb 2025814
Jan 202549
Dec 202411
Nov 202458
Oct 2024215

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve Black Axe, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Nigeria54P94P
South Africa11

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve Black Axe, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Abia stateNigeria2P
Anambra stateNigeria3P
Bayelsa stateNigeria2P
Benue stateNigeria3P
Kwara stateNigeria3P
Lagos stateNigeria27P
Ogun stateNigeria3P
Oyo stateNigeria4P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve Black Axe, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 55 events with 95 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve Black Axe, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Buccaneers2P3P
Eyie36P59P
Jurist1P1P
Maphite1P2P
SVC13P28P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Black Axe: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict53P96%
One-sided violence against civilians2P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Black Axe: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/black-axe/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve Black Axe did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 55 eventsP that involve Black Axe in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in Nigeria and South Africa.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.