Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Western Cape province, South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Western Cape provincePopulation about 7,113,776 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 12 eventsP of organized violence in Western Cape province, South Africa in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 36P. The low estimate is 35 and the high estimate is 36P. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 89 eventsP in Western Cape province, South Africa. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 197P. The low estimate is 193 and the high estimate is 200P. UCDP counts 51P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 3 regions of South Africa with a page, Western Cape province has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Western Cape province holds 68 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 10 events in Western Cape province. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 89P, which is up 790 percent. Over the same periods, the count for South Africa as a whole went from 10 to 131P, which is up 1210 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 74 percentP of the events in Western Cape province in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For South Africa, the share is 61 percentP.

Table 1. Western Cape province, South Africa: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events121289
Estimated deaths, best estimate3634197
Low estimate of deaths3534193
High estimate of deaths3634200
Deaths of civilians13451

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Western Cape province, South Africa on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Western Cape province by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Western Cape province, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 89 events with 197 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Western Cape province: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP71P167P
Americans4P5P
CATA2P7P
Codeta2P7P
Dollar Kids1P2P
Fancy Boys4P6P
Government of South Africa4P4P
Hard Livings1P1P
Junky Funky Kids1P2P
March and March, Operation Dudula4P7P
NTKs3P4P
OTF1P2P
Terrible Josters1P2P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Western Cape province that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Western Cape province in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Cape Winelands municipality1P7P
City of Cape Town municipality83P180P
Eden district municipality2P5P
West Coast municipality3P5P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Western Cape province: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict2P2%
Non-state conflict66P74%
One-sided violence against civilians21P24%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Western Cape province, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202612P36PCandidate Events
August 202612P34PCandidate Events
July 20269P14PCandidate Events
June 20267P14PCandidate Events
May 20268P24PCandidate Events
April 20264P6PCandidate Events
March 202618P32PCandidate Events
February 20269P15PCandidate Events
January 202610P22PCandidate Events
September 202533GED
August 202535GED
June 202548GED
September 202422GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

South Africa: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Western Cape province, South Africa: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/south-africa/western-cape-province/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Western Cape province, South Africa in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 12 eventsP of organized violence in Western Cape province, South Africa in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Western Cape province, South Africa in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 197P. The low estimate is 193 and the high estimate is 200P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.