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Western Cape province, South Africa: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Western Cape province, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 7,113,776 (Wikidata).
Western Cape province, South Africa logged 14 events and 24 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, -44% against the preceding 90 days.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 49 events and 85 estimated deaths were recorded in Western Cape province. That is +717% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 84 and 88. 80% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 27. Relative to population, that is 6.9 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group (30 events, 49 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Sep 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025Sep 2024
Events in Western Cape province, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Western Cape province, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| City of Cape Town municipality | 44 | 76 |
| West Coast municipality | 3 | 5 |
| Eden district municipality | 1 | 3 |
| Overberg District municipality | 1 | 1 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state | 4 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | CATA vs Codeta Non-state | 4 |
| 29 May 2026 | Eden district municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 3 civilian | 3 3–6 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | West Coast municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state, 2 civilian | 2 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 2 civilian | 2 |
| 23 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Government of South Africa vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian, 3 sources | 1 0–1 |
| 23 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state | 1 |
| 18 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | March and March, Operation Dudula vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | City of Cape Town municipality Western Cape province | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group | 62 | 108 |
| CATA | 7 | 12 |
| Codeta | 7 | 12 |
| March and March, Operation Dudula | 4 | 7 |
| Government of South Africa | 3 | 3 |
| Fancy Boys Gang | 2 | 3 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 30 | 49 |
| CATA - Codeta | 7 | 12 |
| March and March, Operation Dudula - Civilians | 4 | 7 |
| Government of South Africa - Civilians | 3 | 3 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 2 | 10 |
| Fancy Boys Gang - Terrible Josters Gang | 1 | 2 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 1 | 2% |
| Non-state conflict | 39 | 80% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 9 | 18% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Western Cape province in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 49 organized-violence events in Western Cape province between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 85 deaths (range 84 to 88).
Is violence in Western Cape province increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (14) were down -44% from the preceding 90 days (25).
Who are the main armed actors in Western Cape province?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Unidentified armed group (62 events), CATA (7 events), Codeta (7 events), March and March, Operation Dudula (4 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Western Cape province?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Western Cape province, 80% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Other regions of South Africa
Gauteng province · KwaZulu-Natal province
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.