Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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JNIM: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 1,236 eventsP that involve JNIM in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 4,409P.

The low estimate is 4,172 and the high estimate is 7,553P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 6 countries.

Among the 133 actors with a page, JNIM has the 5th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. JNIM is one of the two sides in 6 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 881 events that involve JNIM. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 1,236P, which is up 40 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 87 percentP of the events that involve JNIM in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for JNIM on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve JNIM, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve JNIM, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 202690P204P
Aug 202688P198P
Jul 2026145P303P
Jun 202691P424P
May 2026138P628P
Apr 2026122P503P
Mar 202694P248P
Feb 202677P551P
Jan 2026105P311P
Dec 202593213
Nov 202591367
Oct 2025102459
Sep 202570310
Aug 202563463
Jul 202588479
Jun 202591595
May 2025106743
Apr 202573571
Mar 202593478
Feb 202573259
Jan 202567301
Dec 202454168
Nov 202444243
Oct 202459265

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve JNIM, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Benin13P42P
Burkina Faso586P2,581P
Ghana1P20P
Mali613P1,522P
Niger20P241P
Nigeria3P3P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve JNIM, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Koulikoro regionMali60P
Kuilsé regionBurkina Faso84P
Mopti regionMali134P
Segou regionMali114P
Sikasso regionMali77P
Sourou regionBurkina Faso72P
Tombouctou regionMali76P
Yaadga regionBurkina Faso117P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve JNIM, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 1,236 events with 4,409 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve JNIM, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Dozos (Mali)61P99P
Government of Benin13P40P
Government of Burkina Faso533P2,338P
Government of Mali512P1,258P
Government of Niger17P233P
IS38P139P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. JNIM: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict1,076P87%
Non-state conflict108P9%
One-sided violence against civilians52P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. JNIM: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/jnim/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve JNIM did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 1,236 eventsP that involve JNIM in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in 6 countries. The table of countries on this page lists them.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.