Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP
Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.
UCDP recorded 143 eventsP of organized violence in Nigeria in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 451P. The low estimate is 435 and the high estimate is 455P. The count for August 2026 was 161 eventsP.
In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 1,430 eventsP in Nigeria. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 7,734P. The low estimate is 6,952 and the high estimate is 10,545P. UCDP counts 2,174P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.
Among the 49 countries with a page, Nigeria has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, Nigeria has the highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 714 events in Nigeria. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 1,430P, which is up 100 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 42 percentP of the events in Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.
| Figure | September 2026P | August 2026P | 12 months to 30 Sep 2026P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Events | 143 | 161 | 1,430 |
| Estimated deaths, best estimate | 451 | 992 | 7,734 |
| Low estimate of deaths | 435 | 838 | 6,952 |
| High estimate of deaths | 455 | 1,759 | 10,545 |
| Deaths of civilians | 152 | 170 | 2,174 |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.
An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .
This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.
The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.
Since the last update
ConflictStats recorded this on .
- UCDP recorded 451 estimated deaths in Nigeria in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 992 (preliminary).
24 months
Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.
Regions
A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.
| Region | Events | Estimated deaths | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adamawa state | 31P | 214P | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Anambra state | 11P | 16P | 30 Aug 2026 |
| Bauchi state | 6P | 15P | 25 Aug 2026 |
| Bayelsa state | 3P | 3P | 7 Jul 2026 |
| Benue state | 120P | 375P | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Borno state | 331P | 2,740P | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Cross River state | 4P | 6P | 5 Aug 2026 |
| Delta state | 11P | 17P | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Edo state | 4P | 5P | 2 Aug 2026 |
| Enugu state | 6P | 7P | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Federal Capital territory | 5P | 10P | 9 Jun 2026 |
| Imo state | 15P | 25P | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Kaduna state | 41P | 152P | 27 Sep 2026 |
| Kano state | 10P | 26P | 7 Sep 2026 |
| Katsina state | 64P | 328P | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Kebbi state | 43P | 263P | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Kogi state | 17P | 34P | 27 Aug 2026 |
| Kwara state | 31P | 229P | 12 Sep 2026 |
| Lagos state | 32P | 45P | 27 Sep 2026 |
| Nasarawa state | 10P | 35P | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Niger state | 87P | 776P | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Ogun state | 9P | 19P | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Osun state | 20P | 28P | 15 Sep 2026 |
| Oyo state | 16P | 37P | 10 Jul 2026 |
| Plateau state | 212P | 592P | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Rivers state | 10P | 16P | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Sokoto state | 96P | 525P | 26 Sep 2026 |
| Taraba state | 16P | 90P | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Yobe state | 39P | 274P | 1 Sep 2026 |
| Zamfara state | 112P | 806P | 28 Sep 2026 |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 30 regions of Nigeria have a page. 6 more regions have events and no page.
Actors, as UCDP names them
Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.
| Name, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths in these events |
|---|---|---|
| Actor not identified by UCDP | 728P | 3,074P |
| Agasha | 1P | 3P |
| Agatu | 3P | 7P |
| Amasiri, Nde Ndukwe | 1P | 4P |
| Birom | 45P | 132P |
| Black Axe | 54P | 94P |
| Black Axe, SVC | 1P | 3P |
| Buccaneers | 6P | 7P |
| Buccaneers, SVC | 1P | 1P |
| Bujinji | 1P | 2P |
| Buskuwa | 1P | 1P |
| Bwatiye | 5P | 26P |
| Deebam | 1P | 1P |
| Egbor | 1P | 1P |
| Eyie | 49P | 78P |
| Farmers (Nigeria) | 27P | 72P |
| Fulani | 102P | 397P |
| Fulani, Jukun | 1 | 17 |
| Gbagyi | 1P | 1P |
| Government of Nigeria | 349P | 2,708P |
| Greenlanders | 1P | 1P |
| Group named for a person (name not shown) | 51P | 447P |
| Gwari | 1P | 1P |
| Hausa | 1P | 3P |
| Herders (Nigeria) | 27P | 72P |
| Idoma | 4P | 9P |
| Idomi | 1P | 2P |
| Igala | 1P | 1P |
| Igbo | 1P | 1P |
| Inkil | 1P | 2P |
| IPOB | 22P | 32P |
| Irigwe | 2P | 2P |
| IS | 359P | 2,908P |
| JAS | 57P | 912P |
| JNIM | 3P | 3P |
| Jukun | 2P | 6P |
| Jurist | 1P | 1P |
| Kambari | 2P | 35P |
| Kamuku | 3P | 58P |
| Karimjo | 3P | 6P |
| Mabani | 1P | 1P |
| Mambila | 1P | 7P |
| Maphite | 1P | 2P |
| Mbakor | 1P | 3P |
| Mushere | 1 | 1 |
| Mwaghavul | 11P | 43P |
| Orugbam | 1P | 1P |
| Oso-Edda | 1P | 4P |
| SVC | 20P | 39P |
| Tiv | 25P | 113P |
| Tsobo | 5P | 26P |
| Ugep | 1P | 2P |
| Urhobo | 1P | 1P |
| Wurukum | 3P | 6P |
| Yoruba | 2P | 5P |
An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.
| Dyad, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP | 509P | 2,159P |
| Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians | 219P | 915P |
| Agasha - Mbakor | 1P | 3P |
| Agatu - Fulani | 3P | 7P |
| Amasiri, Nde Ndukwe - Oso-Edda | 1P | 4P |
| Birom - Fulani | 45P | 132P |
| Black Axe - Buccaneers | 2P | 3P |
| Black Axe - Civilians | 2P | 2P |
| Black Axe - Eyie | 36P | 59P |
| Black Axe - Jurist | 1P | 1P |
| Black Axe - Maphite | 1P | 2P |
| Black Axe - SVC | 12P | 27P |
| Black Axe, SVC - Eyie | 1P | 3P |
| Buccaneers - Civilians | 1P | 1P |
| Buccaneers - Eyie | 3P | 3P |
| Buccaneers, SVC - Eyie | 1P | 1P |
| Bujinji - Inkil | 1P | 2P |
| Buskuwa - Mabani | 1P | 1P |
| Bwatiye - Tsobo | 5P | 26P |
| Deebam - Greenlanders | 1P | 1P |
| Egbor - Orugbam | 1P | 1P |
| Eyie - SVC | 8P | 12P |
| Farmers (Nigeria) - Herders (Nigeria) | 27P | 72P |
| Fulani - Gbagyi | 1P | 1P |
| Fulani - Idoma | 4P | 9P |
| Fulani - Igala | 1P | 1P |
| Fulani - Irigwe | 2P | 2P |
| Fulani - Kambari | 2P | 35P |
| Fulani - Kamuku | 3P | 58P |
| Fulani - Mambila | 1P | 7P |
| Fulani - Mushere | 1 | 1 |
| Fulani - Mwaghavul | 11P | 43P |
| Fulani - Tiv | 22P | 90P |
| Fulani - Urhobo | 1P | 1P |
| Fulani - Yoruba | 2P | 5P |
| Fulani, Jukun - Tiv | 1 | 17 |
| Government of Nigeria - Civilians | 17P | 55P |
| Government of Nigeria - Group named for a person (name not shown) | 14P | 228P |
| Government of Nigeria - IPOB | 21P | 32P |
| Government of Nigeria - IS | 273P | 2,187P |
| Government of Nigeria - JAS | 23P | 206P |
| Government of Nigeria - JNIM | 1P | 0P |
| Group named for a person (name not shown) - Civilians | 35P | 205P |
| Group named for a person (name not shown) - Group named for a person (name not shown) | 1P | 7P |
| Gwari - Fulani | 1P | 1P |
| Hausa - Fulani | 1P | 3P |
| Idomi - Ugep | 1P | 2P |
| Igbo - Fulani | 1P | 1P |
| IPOB - Civilians | 1P | 0P |
| IS - Civilians | 65P | 379P |
| IS - JAS | 19P | 339P |
| IS - JNIM | 2P | 3P |
| JAS - Civilians | 15P | 367P |
| Jukun - Tiv | 2P | 6P |
| Karimjo - Wurukum | 3P | 6P |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Type of violence
| Type of violence | Events | Share of events |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 595P | 42% |
| Non-state conflict | 480P | 34% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 355P | 25% |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
State-based conflict
A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.
Non-state conflict
The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.
One-sided violence
The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.
Years
Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.
| Year | Events | Estimated deaths | Dataset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 509 | 3,594 | GED |
| 2018 | 536 | 3,244 | GED |
| 2019 | 537 | 2,481 | GED |
| 2020 | 643 | 3,120 | GED |
| 2021 | 532 | 3,234 | GED |
| 2022 | 485 | 2,970 | GED |
| 2023 | 652 | 4,150 | GED |
| 2024 | 502 | 3,201 | GED |
| 2025 | 732 | 4,158 | GED |
| 2026, to 30 Sep 2026 | 1,276P | 6,781P | Candidate Events |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Monthly reports
One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.
| Month | Events | Estimated deaths | Dataset |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 143P | 451P | Candidate Events |
| August 2026 | 161P | 992P | Candidate Events |
| July 2026 | 116P | 551P | Candidate Events |
| June 2026 | 166P | 614P | Candidate Events |
| May 2026 | 145P | 1,010P | Candidate Events |
| April 2026 | 182P | 1,034P | Candidate Events |
| March 2026 | 113P | 698P | Candidate Events |
| February 2026 | 108P | 712P | Candidate Events |
| January 2026 | 142P | 719P | Candidate Events |
| December 2025 | 59 | 358 | GED |
| November 2025 | 44 | 340 | GED |
| October 2025 | 51 | 255 | GED |
| September 2025 | 69 | 336 | GED |
| August 2025 | 69 | 262 | GED |
| July 2025 | 67 | 222 | GED |
| June 2025 | 68 | 469 | GED |
| May 2025 | 85 | 648 | GED |
| April 2025 | 68 | 401 | GED |
| March 2025 | 59 | 248 | GED |
| February 2025 | 46 | 191 | GED |
| January 2025 | 47 | 428 | GED |
| December 2024 | 27 | 182 | GED |
| November 2024 | 57 | 255 | GED |
| October 2024 | 52 | 330 | GED |
| September 2024 | 39 | 235 | GED |
| August 2024 | 30 | 408 | GED |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.
Related pages
Official channels
- UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia: NigeriaThe page of this country in the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia.
- UCDP DefinitionsThe definitions that UCDP uses.
- UCDP Dataset Download CenterThe UCDP datasets, the codebooks and the citation of each dataset.
- World Bank: Population, total, NGThe population figure that the rates use.
- US Department of State: travel.state.govThe site where the Department of State publishes its travel advisories. ConflictStats gives no travel advice.
These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .
Cite and download
ConflictStats. Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/nigeria/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .
The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.
- Events of Nigeria (CSV)One row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026: 2,183 rows.
- Figures of this page (JSON)The counts by period, by month, by region and by year.
- Monthly reports (RSS)The 12 newest monthly reports.
The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 6 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.
Questions
How many events did UCDP record in Nigeria in September 2026?
UCDP recorded 143 eventsP of organized violence in Nigeria in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 161 eventsP.
How does UCDP count deaths?
UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 7,734P. The low estimate is 6,952 and the high estimate is 10,545P.
Are the figures of the latest months final?
No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.
Where are the events of Nigeria as a CSV file?
The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 2,183 rows. Download the events (CSV)