Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths in December 2025

Monthly report of a regionDataset: UCDP GEDData through

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a monthly report when three things are true. The page of the region is listed. The month is one of the last 12 months. The month has 30 or more events.

UCDP recorded 9 events of organized violence in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia in December 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 151. The low estimate is 151 and the high estimate is 172. UCDP counts 0 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for November 2025 was 3 events.

The count for December 2024 was 2 events. The change from December 2024 to December 2025 is up 350 percent. Among the 24 months with a report for Middle Shabelle region, Somalia, December 2025 has the 3rd highest count of events. Middle Shabelle region, Somalia holds 26 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in Somalia in December 2025. In December 2024, the share was 29 percent.

The report of the country for this month: Somalia, December 2025.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Events

The table lists each event of the month. The CSV file of Somalia has each event.

Table 1. Middle Shabelle region, December 2025: the events of the month, in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
2 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based002
15 Dec 2025Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based111
18 Dec 2025Adan Yabal district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based0011
21 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based151515
24 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based008
25 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based363636
25 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based353535
25 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based353535
31 Dec 2025Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based292929

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Middle Shabelle region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of December 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab9151
Government of Somalia9151

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

All months

Table 3. Monthly reports of Middle Shabelle region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20263P23PCandidate Events
August 20267P17PCandidate Events
July 20268P62PCandidate Events
June 20265P53PCandidate Events
May 20264P11PCandidate Events
April 20262P33PCandidate Events
March 20265P3PCandidate Events
February 20263P24PCandidate Events
January 202610P631PCandidate Events
December 20259151GED
November 2025330GED
October 2025211GED
August 202514GED
July 2025415GED
June 2025656GED
May 2025662GED
April 2025888GED
March 202511195GED
February 20253166GED
December 2024257GED
November 2024127GED
October 2024127GED
September 2024215GED
August 2024312GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Middle Shabelle region: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths in December 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/middle-shabelle-region/month/2025-12/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.