Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

ConflictStats

Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

Search

Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Population 19,654,739 (World Bank, 2025)

Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.

UCDP recorded 25 eventsP of organized violence in Somalia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 194P. The low estimate is 193 and the high estimate is 250P. The count for August 2026 was 38 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 417 eventsP in Somalia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 3,757P. The low estimate is 3,737 and the high estimate is 4,355P. UCDP counts 144P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 49 countries with a page, Somalia has the 17th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, Somalia has the 7th highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 293 events in Somalia. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 417P, which is up 42 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 88 percentP of the events in Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

Table 1. Somalia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events2538417
Estimated deaths, best estimate1941483,757
Low estimate of deaths1931483,737
High estimate of deaths2502814,355
Deaths of civilians10144

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 25 events in Somalia in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 38 (preliminary).
  • UCDP recorded 194 estimated deaths in Somalia in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 148 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Somalia by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
05001,000Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 2. Estimated deaths in Somalia by month, best estimate. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 7.
Figure 3. Events in Somalia, 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 106 events with 640 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Regions

A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.

Table 2. Regions of Somalia with a page, in name order: the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
RegionEventsEstimated deathsLast event
Bakool region9P33P3 Aug 2026
Banaadir region20P30P14 Sep 2026
Bari region35P159P26 Sep 2026
Bay region49P396P28 Sep 2026
Galgudud region6P27P4 Jan 2026
Hiran region53P344P16 Aug 2026
Lower Juba region35P459P4 Sep 2026
Lower Shabelle region98P716P13 Sep 2026
Middle Juba region33P336P11 Sep 2026
Middle Shabelle region61P1,049P25 Sep 2026
Mudug region8P125P27 Sep 2026

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 11 regions of Somalia have a page. 3 more regions have events and no page.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.

Table 3. Somalia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP5P29P
Al-Shabaab362P3,335P
Dhulbahante subclan of Harti clan (Darod)1P25P
Fiqishini subclan of Ayr clan (Hawiye)1P25P
Government of Kenya1P0P
Government of Somalia368P3,531P
Group named for a person (name not shown)9P172P
IS33P157P
Jubaland State of Somalia1P1P
Puntland State of Somalia1578
SFC14P77P
South West State of Somalia1P2P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Table 4. Somalia: UCDP dyads in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Dyad, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP5P29P
Al-Shabaab - Civilians14P47P
Dhulbahante subclan of Harti clan (Darod) - Fiqishini subclan of Ayr clan (Hawiye)1P25P
Government of Kenya - Al-Shabaab1P0P
Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab347P3,288P
Government of Somalia - Civilians3P5P
Government of Somalia - Group named for a person (name not shown)9P172P
Government of Somalia - IS6P33P
Government of Somalia - SFC2P31P
Government of Somalia - South West State of Somalia1P2P
IS - SFC12P46P
Jubaland State of Somalia - Civilians1P1P
Puntland State of Somalia - IS1578

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 5. Somalia: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict369P88%
Non-state conflict30P7%
One-sided violence against civilians18P4%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

State-based conflict

A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Non-state conflict

The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

One-sided violence

The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Years

Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.

Table 6. Somalia: events and estimated deaths by year
YearEventsEstimated deathsDataset
20172852,071GED
20185092,507GED
20194262,219GED
20203942,120GED
20213902,269GED
20223383,115GED
20232474,216GED
20241722,437GED
20253663,872GED
2026, to 30 Sep 2026311P3,080PCandidate Events

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.

Table 7. Monthly reports of Somalia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202625P194PCandidate Events
August 202638P148PCandidate Events
July 202646P325PCandidate Events
June 202630P368PCandidate Events
May 202629P358PCandidate Events
April 202632P296PCandidate Events
March 202630P188PCandidate Events
February 202637P231PCandidate Events
January 202644P972PCandidate Events
December 202535249GED
November 202526279GED
October 202545149GED
September 202529195GED
August 202532379GED
July 202531177GED
June 202542479GED
May 202536498GED
April 202524214GED
March 202530548GED
February 202520577GED
January 202516128GED
December 20247112GED
November 202411106GED
October 202415280GED
September 20241489GED
August 202419156GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Other countries of the UCDP region Africa

Comparisons

Refugees and asylum seekers

Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.

Table 8. People from Somalia who are in other countries, end of 2025 (UNHCR)
GroupPeople
Refugees892,037
Asylum seekers236,271

These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Embed this card on your site

Copy this code into your page. The card shows the figures above with their source. A line under the card links to this page.

How embedding works. It is free. Keep the link in the card and the link line under it.

The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 21.2 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Somalia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 25 eventsP of organized violence in Somalia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 38 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 3,757P. The low estimate is 3,737 and the high estimate is 4,355P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.

Where are the events of Somalia as a CSV file?

The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 724 rows. Download the events (CSV)