Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Middle Shabelle region

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 23P. The count for August 2026 was 7 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 61 eventsP in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 1,049P. The low estimate is 1,048 and the high estimate is 1,140P. UCDP counts 30P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 11 regions of Somalia with a page, Middle Shabelle region has the 2nd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Middle Shabelle region holds 15 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 43 events in Middle Shabelle region. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 61P, which is up 42 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Somalia as a whole went from 293 to 417P, which is up 42 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 100 percentP of the events in Middle Shabelle region in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Somalia, the share is 88 percentP.

Table 1. Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events3761
Estimated deaths, best estimate23171,049
Low estimate of deaths23171,048
High estimate of deaths23191,140
Deaths of civilians0030

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Middle Shabelle region, Somalia on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Middle Shabelle region by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Middle Shabelle region, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 61 events with 1,049 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Middle Shabelle region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab61P1,049P
Government of Somalia61P1,049P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Middle Shabelle region that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Middle Shabelle region in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Adan Yabal district7P66P
Balad district29P775P
Cadale district9P102P
Jowhar district14P97P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Middle Shabelle region: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict61P100%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians00%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Middle Shabelle region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20263P23PCandidate Events
August 20267P17PCandidate Events
July 20268P62PCandidate Events
June 20265P53PCandidate Events
May 20264P11PCandidate Events
April 20262P33PCandidate Events
March 20265P3PCandidate Events
February 20263P24PCandidate Events
January 202610P631PCandidate Events
December 20259151GED
November 2025330GED
October 2025211GED
August 202514GED
July 2025415GED
June 2025656GED
May 2025662GED
April 2025888GED
March 202511195GED
February 20253166GED
December 2024257GED
November 2024127GED
October 2024127GED
September 2024215GED
August 2024312GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Somalia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/middle-shabelle-region/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 3 eventsP of organized violence in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 7 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Middle Shabelle region, Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 1,049P. The low estimate is 1,048 and the high estimate is 1,140P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.