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Middle Shabelle region, Somalia: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Middle Shabelle region, data through 31 Jul 2026.
Violence in Middle Shabelle region, Somalia intensified over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 15 events against 10 in the prior quarter (+50%), with 126 estimated deaths.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 50 events and 1,013 estimated deaths were recorded in Middle Shabelle region. That is roughly the same as the 12 months before. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 1,012 and 1,102. 100% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 30.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab (50 events, 1,013 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025
Events in Middle Shabelle region, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Middle Shabelle region, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Balad district | 26 | 763 |
| Jowhar district | 10 | 74 |
| Adan Yabal district | 7 | 69 |
| Cadale district | 4 | 68 |
56,088 internally displaced people recorded in Middle Shabelle as of 30 Sep 2024. Source: IOM DTM via HDX HAPI.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026 | Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources | 30 |
| 3 Jun 2026 | Cadale district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 3 sources | 23 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Cadale district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 3 sources | 12 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Adan Yabal district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 11 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Jowhar district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 9 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Jowhar district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 9 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Jowhar district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 8 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 8 |
| 13 May 2026 | Jowhar district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 5 |
| 12 May 2026 | Jowhar district Middle Shabelle region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 5 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia | 50 | 1,013 |
| Al-Shabaab | 50 | 1,013 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab | 50 | 1,013 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 50 | 100% |
| Non-state conflict | 0 | 0% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 0 | 0% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Middle Shabelle region in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 50 organized-violence events in Middle Shabelle region between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 1,013 deaths (range 1,012 to 1,102).
Is violence in Middle Shabelle region increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (15) were up +50% on the preceding 90 days (10).
Who are the main armed actors in Middle Shabelle region?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Government of Somalia (50 events), Al-Shabaab (50 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Middle Shabelle region?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Middle Shabelle region, 100% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Dec 2024Nov 2024Oct 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Somalia
Lower Shabelle region · Hiran region · Bay region · Lower Juba region · Bari region · Banaadir region · Middle Juba region · Mudug region · Bakool region · Galgudud region
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.