Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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EPFAS: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 84 eventsP that involve EPFAS in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 428P.

The low estimate is 428 and the high estimate is 956P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 1 country.

Among the 133 actors with a page, EPFAS has the 48th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. EPFAS is one of the two sides in 0 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded no events that involve EPFAS. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 84P, which is up from no events. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 99 percentP of the events that involve EPFAS in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for EPFAS on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve EPFAS, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve EPFAS, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 202684P428P
Aug 20260P0P
Jul 20260P0P
Jun 20260P0P
May 20260P0P
Apr 20260P0P
Mar 20260P0P
Feb 20260P0P
Jan 20260P0P
Dec 202500
Nov 202500
Oct 202500
Sep 202500
Aug 202500
Jul 202500
Jun 202500
May 202500
Apr 202500
Mar 202500
Feb 202500
Jan 202500
Dec 202400
Nov 202400
Oct 202400

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve EPFAS, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Ethiopia84P428P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve EPFAS, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Afar stateEthiopia13P
Amhara stateEthiopia31P
Oromiya stateEthiopia3P
Tigray stateEthiopia37P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve EPFAS, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 84 events with 428 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve EPFAS, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Ethiopia83P428P
TPF1P0P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. EPFAS: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict83P99%
Non-state conflict1P1%
One-sided violence against civilians00%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. EPFAS: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/epfas/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve EPFAS did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 84 eventsP that involve EPFAS in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in Ethiopia.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.