Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Afar state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Afar statePopulation about 1,483,900 (Wikidata)

Search engines are asked not to list this page. They list a region page at 30 or more events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. This page has 19.

UCDP recorded 15 eventsP of organized violence in Afar state, Ethiopia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 2P. The low estimate is 2 and the high estimate is 17P. UCDP recorded no eventsP in August 2026.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 19 eventsP in Afar state, Ethiopia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 22P. The low estimate is 18 and the high estimate is 38P. UCDP counts 4P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 8 regions of Ethiopia with a page, Afar state has the 4th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Afar state holds 2 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded no events in Afar state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 19P, which is up from no events. Over the same periods, the count for Ethiopia as a whole went from 1,394 to 947P, which is down 32 percent.

Table 1. Afar state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events15019
Estimated deaths, best estimate2022
Low estimate of deaths2018
High estimate of deaths17038
Deaths of civilians204

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Afar state, Ethiopia on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Afar state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Afar state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 19 events with 22 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Afar state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP1P0P
ANURF1P2P
EPFAS13P0P
Government of Ethiopia15P18P
TPF1P0P
TPLF4P20P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Afar state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Afar state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Afar Zone 11P0P
Afar Zone 215P20P
Afar Zone 41P0P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Afar state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict15P79%
Non-state conflict2P11%
One-sided violence against civilians2P11%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Afar state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202615P2PCandidate Events
June 20261P2PCandidate Events
May 20261P2PCandidate Events
January 20261P0PCandidate Events
November 2025116GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Afar state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/afar-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Afar state, Ethiopia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 15 eventsP of organized violence in Afar state, Ethiopia in September 2026. UCDP recorded no eventsP in August 2026.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Afar state, Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 22P. The low estimate is 18 and the high estimate is 38P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.