Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Tigray state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Tigray statePopulation about 4,960,003 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 43 eventsP of organized violence in Tigray state, Ethiopia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 204P. The low estimate is 204 and the high estimate is 242P. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 98 eventsP in Tigray state, Ethiopia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 296P. The low estimate is 293 and the high estimate is 564P. UCDP counts 122P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 8 regions of Ethiopia with a page, Tigray state has the 3rd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Tigray state holds 10 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 6 events in Tigray state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 98P, which is up 1533 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Ethiopia as a whole went from 1,394 to 947P, which is down 32 percent. Events of one-sided violence are 1 percentP of the events in Tigray state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Ethiopia, the share is 18 percentP.

Table 1. Tigray state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events431298
Estimated deaths, best estimate20450296
Low estimate of deaths20450293
High estimate of deaths242237564
Deaths of civilians1155122

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 43 events in Tigray state, Ethiopia, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 12 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Tigray state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Tigray state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 98 events with 296 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Tigray state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP8P3P
EPFAS37P140P
Fano4P8P
Government of Ethiopia86P289P
Government of Sudan1P0P
Tekeze Guards1P4P
TPF2P0P
TPLF48P145P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Tigray state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Tigray state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Central zone4P5P
Eastern zone4P0P
Mekele special zone1P0P
Northwestern zone29P71P
Southeastern zone9P19P
Southern zone38P148P
Western zone11P53P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Tigray state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict87P89%
Non-state conflict10P10%
One-sided violence against civilians1P1%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Tigray state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202643P204PCandidate Events
August 202612P50PCandidate Events
June 20266P9PCandidate Events
April 20262P4PCandidate Events
March 20262P5PCandidate Events
February 20264P0PCandidate Events
January 202627P21PCandidate Events
December 202512GED
October 202511GED
September 202521GED
August 202510GED
March 202516GED
January 202510GED
October 202411GED
August 202412GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Tigray state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/tigray-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Tigray state, Ethiopia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 43 eventsP of organized violence in Tigray state, Ethiopia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 12 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Tigray state, Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 296P. The low estimate is 293 and the high estimate is 564P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.