Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Oromiya state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Oromiya state

UCDP recorded 16 eventsP of organized violence in Oromiya state, Ethiopia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 56P. The low estimate is 51 and the high estimate is 77P. The count for August 2026 was 28 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 251 eventsP in Oromiya state, Ethiopia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 861P. The low estimate is 655 and the high estimate is 2,775P. UCDP counts 387P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 8 regions of Ethiopia with a page, Oromiya state has the 2nd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Oromiya state holds 27 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 851 events in Oromiya state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 251P, which is down 71 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Ethiopia as a whole went from 1,394 to 947P, which is down 32 percent. Events of one-sided violence are 52 percentP of the events in Oromiya state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Ethiopia, the share is 18 percentP.

Table 1. Oromiya state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1628251
Estimated deaths, best estimate56122861
Low estimate of deaths51105655
High estimate of deaths774362,775
Deaths of civilians2595387

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 16 events in Oromiya state, Ethiopia, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 28 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

0100200Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Oromiya state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Oromiya state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 251 events with 861 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Oromiya state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP15P73P
Argobba2P4P
EPFAS3P2P
Fano42P155P
Government of Ethiopia223P707P
Guji2P34P
OLA78P358P
Oromo2P4P
Sidama2P34P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Oromiya state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Oromiya state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Arsi zone42P174P
East Shewa zone23P29P
East Welega zone45P216P
Guji zone6P40P
Horo Gudru Welega zone18P65P
Ilubabor zone5P9P
North Shewa zone18P61P
West Hararghe zone14P30P
West Shewa zone28P96P
West Welega zone27P86P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Oromiya state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict114P45%
Non-state conflict6P2%
One-sided violence against civilians131P52%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Oromiya state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202616P56PCandidate Events
August 202628P122PCandidate Events
July 202616P73PCandidate Events
June 202629P42PCandidate Events
May 202627P61PCandidate Events
April 202613P22PCandidate Events
March 202634P59PCandidate Events
February 202619P137PCandidate Events
January 202619P27PCandidate Events
December 20252150GED
November 202518117GED
October 20251195GED
September 202521113GED
August 20253566GED
July 202530105GED
June 20256065GED
May 20253248GED
April 2025145113GED
March 202585120GED
February 20256070GED
January 2025112151GED
December 202410680GED
November 202484155GED
October 202481147GED
September 20249178GED
August 20241980GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Oromiya state, Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/oromiya-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Oromiya state, Ethiopia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 16 eventsP of organized violence in Oromiya state, Ethiopia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 28 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Oromiya state, Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 861P. The low estimate is 655 and the high estimate is 2,775P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.