Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP
Coverage ends on . Figures that include Candidate Events are preliminary. Compare the two recorded 12-month windows.
UCDP recorded 119 eventsP of organized violence in Ethiopia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 609P. The low estimate is 582 and the high estimate is 1,393P. The count for August 2026 was 71 eventsP.
In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 947 eventsP in Ethiopia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 5,278P. The low estimate is 3,925 and the high estimate is 14,592P. UCDP counts 763P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.
Among the 49 countries with a page, Ethiopia has the 6th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the UCDP region Africa, Ethiopia has the 2nd highest count of events of the 20 countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 1,394 events in Ethiopia. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 947P, which is down 32 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page together went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 4 percentP of the events in Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 24 percentP.
| Figure | September 2026P | August 2026P | 12 months to 30 Sep 2026P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Events | 119 | 71 | 947 |
| Estimated deaths, best estimate | 609 | 353 | 5,278 |
| Low estimate of deaths | 582 | 238 | 3,925 |
| High estimate of deaths | 1,393 | 1,091 | 14,592 |
| Deaths of civilians | 157 | 133 | 763 |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.
An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date
UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .
This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.
The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.
Since the last update
ConflictStats recorded this on .
- UCDP recorded 119 events in Ethiopia in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 71 (preliminary).
- UCDP recorded 609 estimated deaths in Ethiopia in September 2026 (preliminary). The estimate for August 2026 was 353 (preliminary).
24 months
Source: UCDP GED to December 2025, UCDP Candidate Events from January 2026.
Regions
A region is a first-level area in the UCDP data. A region needs 5 or more events in the last 12 months to have a page. Search engines list a region page at 30 or more.
| Region | Events | Estimated deaths | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afar state | 19P | 22P | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Amhara state | 530P | 3,626P | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Benishangul-Gumuz state | 17P | 178P | 2 Sep 2026 |
| Central Ethiopia regional state | 7P | 52P | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Gambella state | 13P | 171P | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Oromiya state | 251P | 861P | 29 Sep 2026 |
| South Ethiopia regional state | 7P | 21P | 11 Sep 2026 |
| Tigray state | 98P | 296P | 30 Sep 2026 |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. 8 regions of Ethiopia have a page. 4 more regions have events and no page.
Actors, as UCDP names them
Names as UCDP writes them. The glossary has the UCDP definition of an actor and of a dyad.
| Name, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths in these events |
|---|---|---|
| Actor not identified by UCDP | 35P | 126P |
| Agew Shengo | 1P | 3P |
| ALF | 3P | 2P |
| Amhara | 1P | 10P |
| Anuak | 12P | 170P |
| ANURF | 1P | 2P |
| Argobba | 2P | 4P |
| BDF | 1P | 2P |
| EPFAS | 84P | 428P |
| Fano | 527P | 3,479P |
| GFNF | 4P | 39P |
| Government of Ethiopia | 861P | 4,767P |
| Government of Sudan | 4P | 11P |
| Guji | 2P | 34P |
| Nuer | 12P | 170P |
| OLA | 87P | 528P |
| Oromo | 2P | 4P |
| Qimant | 1P | 10P |
| SFA | 3P | 11P |
| Sidama | 2P | 34P |
| Tekeze Guards | 1P | 4P |
| TPF | 5P | 0P |
| TPLF | 57P | 165P |
An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.
| Dyad, as UCDP writes it | Events | Estimated deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Actor not identified by UCDP - Actor not identified by UCDP | 19P | 36P |
| Actor not identified by UCDP - Civilians | 16P | 90P |
| Amhara - Qimant | 1P | 10P |
| Anuak - Nuer | 12P | 170P |
| ANURF - Civilians | 1P | 2P |
| Argobba - Oromo | 2P | 4P |
| EPFAS - TPF | 1P | 0P |
| Fano - Civilians | 15P | 80P |
| Fano - OLA | 1P | 2P |
| Fano - Tekeze Guards | 1P | 4P |
| Fano - TPF | 1P | 0P |
| Government of Ethiopia - Agew Shengo | 1P | 3P |
| Government of Ethiopia - ALF | 3P | 2P |
| Government of Ethiopia - BDF | 1P | 2P |
| Government of Ethiopia - Civilians | 127P | 277P |
| Government of Ethiopia - EPFAS | 83P | 428P |
| Government of Ethiopia - Fano | 509P | 3,393P |
| Government of Ethiopia - GFNF | 4P | 39P |
| Government of Ethiopia - OLA | 80P | 460P |
| Government of Ethiopia - TPLF | 53P | 163P |
| Government of Sudan - Civilians | 1P | 0P |
| Government of Sudan - SFA | 3P | 11P |
| Guji - Sidama | 2P | 34P |
| OLA - Civilians | 6P | 66P |
| TPF - TPLF | 3P | 0P |
| TPLF - Civilians | 1P | 2P |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Type of violence
| Type of violence | Events | Share of events |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 741P | 78% |
| Non-state conflict | 39P | 4% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 167P | 18% |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
State-based conflict
A state-based armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.
Non-state conflict
The use of armed force between two organised armed groups, neither of which is the government of a state, which results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.
One-sided violence
The deliberate use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group against civilians which results in at least 25 deaths in a year.
Years
Years to 2025 are from the UCDP GED. The year 2026 is from Candidate Events and is not complete.
| Year | Events | Estimated deaths | Dataset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 41 | 488 | GED |
| 2018 | 63 | 713 | GED |
| 2019 | 63 | 425 | GED |
| 2020 | 264 | 24,430 | GED |
| 2021 | 730 | 129,516 | GED |
| 2022 | 879 | 165,025 | GED |
| 2023 | 581 | 2,383 | GED |
| 2024 | 882 | 4,159 | GED |
| 2025 | 1,281 | 5,458 | GED |
| 2026, to 30 Sep 2026 | 711P | 3,495P | Candidate Events |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.
Monthly reports
One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events.
| Month | Events | Estimated deaths | Dataset |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 119P | 609P | Candidate Events |
| August 2026 | 71P | 353P | Candidate Events |
| July 2026 | 59P | 242P | Candidate Events |
| June 2026 | 69P | 350P | Candidate Events |
| May 2026 | 57P | 211P | Candidate Events |
| April 2026 | 70P | 257P | Candidate Events |
| March 2026 | 93P | 640P | Candidate Events |
| February 2026 | 82P | 533P | Candidate Events |
| January 2026 | 91P | 300P | Candidate Events |
| December 2025 | 82 | 361 | GED |
| November 2025 | 68 | 865 | GED |
| October 2025 | 86 | 557 | GED |
| September 2025 | 61 | 706 | GED |
| August 2025 | 83 | 308 | GED |
| July 2025 | 80 | 245 | GED |
| June 2025 | 112 | 323 | GED |
| May 2025 | 91 | 266 | GED |
| April 2025 | 197 | 631 | GED |
| March 2025 | 153 | 631 | GED |
| February 2025 | 96 | 153 | GED |
| January 2025 | 172 | 412 | GED |
| December 2024 | 129 | 183 | GED |
| November 2024 | 102 | 289 | GED |
| October 2024 | 118 | 479 | GED |
| September 2024 | 125 | 311 | GED |
| August 2024 | 29 | 231 | GED |
P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.
Related pages
Refugees and asylum seekers
Not UCDP data. Source: UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database, CC BY 4.0, figures for the end of 2025.
| Group | People |
|---|---|
| Refugees | 164,215 |
| Asylum seekers | 148,616 |
These figures come from UNHCR. They are not a part of the UCDP counts of events and deaths. UNHCR has not endorsed this site. Read the UNHCR terms of use for datasets.
Official channels
- UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia: EthiopiaThe page of this country in the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia.
- UCDP DefinitionsThe definitions that UCDP uses.
- UCDP Dataset Download CenterThe UCDP datasets, the codebooks and the citation of each dataset.
- World Bank: Population, total, ETThe population figure that the rates use.
- US Department of State: travel.state.govThe site where the Department of State publishes its travel advisories. ConflictStats gives no travel advice.
These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .
Cite and download
ConflictStats. Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .
The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.
- Events of Ethiopia (CSV)One row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026: 2,466 rows.
- Figures of this page (JSON)The counts by period, by month, by region and by year.
- Monthly reports (RSS)The 12 newest monthly reports.
The files are made from UCDP data, CC BY 4.0. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. The rate for the 12 months is 7 (preliminary) events for each million inhabitants.
Questions
How many events did UCDP record in Ethiopia in September 2026?
UCDP recorded 119 eventsP of organized violence in Ethiopia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 71 eventsP.
How does UCDP count deaths?
UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Ethiopia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 5,278P. The low estimate is 3,925 and the high estimate is 14,592P.
Are the figures of the latest months final?
No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.
Where are the events of Ethiopia as a CSV file?
The file has one row for each event from 1 Sep 2024 to 30 Sep 2026. It has 2,466 rows. Download the events (CSV)