Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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TPLF: events recorded by UCDP

Data through The name is the name that UCDP writes

UCDP recorded 58 eventsP that involve TPLF in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 167P.

The low estimate is 160 and the high estimate is 395P. The count holds each event in which this actor is one of the two sides. It does not say which side caused a death. UCDP recorded these events in 2 countries.

Among the 133 actors with a page, TPLF has the 60th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. TPLF is one of the two sides in 0 percentP of the 22,144P events in all countries with a page. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 2 events that involve TPLF. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 58P, which is up 2800 percent. Over the same periods, the count for all countries with a page went from 27,291 to 22,144P, which is down 19 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 93 percentP of the events that involve TPLF in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For all countries with a page, the share is 63 percentP.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

What UCDP calls an actor

A state or a non-state formally organised or informally organised group.

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Definitions, copied on .

Since the last update

The log has no change for TPLF on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events that involve TPLF, by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events.
Events that involve TPLF, by month, newest first
MonthEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Sep 20266P64P
Aug 202613P48P
Jul 20260P0P
Jun 20269P11P
May 20261P2P
Apr 20262P4P
Mar 20261P1P
Feb 20263P0P
Jan 202620P18P
Dec 202512
Nov 2025116
Oct 202511
Sep 202510
Aug 202500
Jul 202500
Jun 202500
May 202500
Apr 202500
Mar 202500
Feb 202500
Jan 202500
Dec 202400
Nov 202400
Oct 202411

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Countries and regions

Where UCDP recorded the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table of regions has 8 regions at most.

Table 1. Countries of the events that involve TPLF, in name order
CountryEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Ethiopia57P165P
Sudan1P2P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Table 2. Regions of the events that involve TPLF, in name order
RegionCountryEvents
Afar stateEthiopia4P
Amhara stateEthiopia4P
Gedarif stateSudan1P
Tigray stateEthiopia48P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 2. Events that involve TPLF, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 58 events with 167 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Other sides

The other side of the events, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. The table has 6 names at most.

Table 3. Other sides in the events that involve TPLF, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Government of Ethiopia54P165P
TPF3P0P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. TPLF: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict54P93%
Non-state conflict3P5%
One-sided violence against civilians1P2%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite this page

ConflictStats. TPLF: events recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/actor/tplf/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Questions

How many events that involve TPLF did UCDP record?

UCDP recorded 58 eventsP that involve TPLF in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026.

What is an actor in UCDP data?

UCDP calls each side of an event an actor. An actor is a state, or a non-state group that is formally or informally organised. This site writes the name as UCDP writes it. It replaces the name of a group that is named for a person.

In which countries did UCDP record these events?

UCDP recorded them in Ethiopia and Sudan.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.