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Sonora state, Mexico: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Sonora state, data through 31 Jul 2026.
Recorded violence in Sonora state, Mexico eased over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 1 events compared with 2 in the prior quarter (-50%). Estimated deaths: 1.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 7 events and 8 estimated deaths were recorded in Sonora state. That is -83% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 6 and 8. 57% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 2.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos (4 events, 5 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:May 2026Feb 2026Dec 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025
Events in Sonora state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Sonora state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Cajeme municipality | 3 | 4 |
| Hermosillo municipality | 2 | 2 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 | Cajeme municipality Sonora state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos | 4 | 5 |
| Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos | 4 | 5 |
| Unidentified armed group | 4 | 4 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos | 4 | 5 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 2 | 2 |
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 1 | 1 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 1 | 14% |
| Non-state conflict | 4 | 57% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 2 | 29% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Sonora state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 7 organized-violence events in Sonora state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 8 deaths (range 6 to 8).
Is violence in Sonora state increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (1) were down -50% from the preceding 90 days (2).
Who are the main armed actors in Sonora state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos (4 events), Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos (4 events), Unidentified armed group (4 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Sonora state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Sonora state, 57% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:May 2026Feb 2026Dec 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025Oct 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Mexico
Sinaloa state · Guerrero state · Guanajuato state · Chihuahua state · Baja California state · Ciudad de México · México state · Oaxaca state · Veracruz state · Michoacán state · Morelos state · Hidalgo state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.