Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Baja California state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Baja California state

UCDP recorded 32 eventsP of organized violence in Baja California state, Mexico in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 41P. The low estimate is 40 and the high estimate is 41P. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 238 eventsP in Baja California state, Mexico. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 437P. The low estimate is 302 and the high estimate is 517P. UCDP counts 3P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 22 regions of Mexico with a page, Baja California state has the 5th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Baja California state holds 10 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 347 events in Baja California state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 238P, which is down 31 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Mexico as a whole went from 3,005 to 2,462P, which is down 18 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 99 percentP of the events in Baja California state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Mexico, the share is 94 percentP.

Table 1. Baja California state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events321238
Estimated deaths, best estimate411437
Low estimate of deaths401302
High estimate of deaths411517
Deaths of civilians113

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 32 events in Baja California state, Mexico, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 1 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

02550Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Baja California state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Baja California state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 238 events with 437 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Baja California state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP25P28P
Group named for a person (name not shown)75P194P
Jalisco Cartel New Generation140P222P
Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Group named for a person (name not shown)71P180P
Sinaloa Cartel140P222P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Baja California state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Baja California state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Ensenada municipality6P12P
Mexicali municipality3P3P
Playas de Rosarito municipality25
Tecate municipality7P137P
Tijuana municipality219P158P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Baja California state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict236P99%
One-sided violence against civilians2P1%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Baja California state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202632P41PCandidate Events
August 20261P1PCandidate Events
July 202617P19PCandidate Events
June 202613P10PCandidate Events
May 202622P10PCandidate Events
April 202630P29PCandidate Events
March 202613P15PCandidate Events
February 202622P3PCandidate Events
January 202628P145PCandidate Events
December 20251513GED
November 202518131GED
October 20252720GED
September 20253832GED
August 20254521GED
July 20252119GED
June 202519275GED
May 20252924GED
April 20253421GED
March 20251817GED
February 20252614GED
January 202544472GED
December 20241617GED
November 20243625GED
October 20242125GED
September 20244449GED
August 20243949GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Mexico: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Baja California state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/mexico/baja-california-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Baja California state, Mexico in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 32 eventsP of organized violence in Baja California state, Mexico in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Baja California state, Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 437P. The low estimate is 302 and the high estimate is 517P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.