Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Guanajuato state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Guanajuato state

UCDP recorded 50 eventsP of organized violence in Guanajuato state, Mexico in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 18P. The low estimate is 10 and the high estimate is 60P. The count for August 2026 was 32 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 459 eventsP in Guanajuato state, Mexico. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 557P. The low estimate is 284 and the high estimate is 765P. UCDP counts 26P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 22 regions of Mexico with a page, Guanajuato state has the 2nd highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Guanajuato state holds 19 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 709 events in Guanajuato state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 459P, which is down 35 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Mexico as a whole went from 3,005 to 2,462P, which is down 18 percent. For the events in Guanajuato state, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Mexico.

Table 1. Guanajuato state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events5032459
Estimated deaths, best estimate1817557
Low estimate of deaths1014284
High estimate of deaths6044765
Deaths of civilians0426

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 50 events in Guanajuato state, Mexico, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 32 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

050100Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Guanajuato state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Guanajuato state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 459 events with 557 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Guanajuato state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP24P47P
Government of Mexico11
Jalisco Cartel New Generation434P509P
Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel433P509P
Sinaloa Cartel10

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Guanajuato state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Guanajuato state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Acámbaro municipality28P8P
Apaseo el Alto municipality27P18P
Apaseo el Grande municipality13P7P
Celaya municipality79P30P
Irapuato municipality205P117P
Pénjamo municipality10P15P
Salvatierra municipality14P2P
San Miguel de Allende municipality13P5P
Valle de Santiago municipality14P23P
Yuriria municipality11P9P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Guanajuato state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict1Punder 1%
Non-state conflict447P97%
One-sided violence against civilians11P2%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Guanajuato state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202650P18PCandidate Events
August 202632P17PCandidate Events
July 202634P27PCandidate Events
June 202628P23PCandidate Events
May 202641P21PCandidate Events
April 202620P30PCandidate Events
March 202639P65PCandidate Events
February 202622P5PCandidate Events
January 202662P57PCandidate Events
December 20253728GED
November 20254522GED
October 202549244GED
September 20257888GED
August 20255376GED
July 20254728GED
June 20253130GED
May 20255445GED
April 20252018GED
March 20256578GED
February 20257474GED
January 202578761GED
December 20245374GED
November 20247080GED
October 202486127GED
September 20246177GED
August 202480115GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Mexico: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Guanajuato state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/mexico/guanajuato-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Guanajuato state, Mexico in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 50 eventsP of organized violence in Guanajuato state, Mexico in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 32 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Guanajuato state, Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 557P. The low estimate is 284 and the high estimate is 765P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.