Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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México state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: México state

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in México state, Mexico in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 5P. The count for August 2026 was 4 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 48 eventsP in México state, Mexico. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 57P. UCDP counts 5P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 22 regions of Mexico with a page, México state has the 8th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. México state holds 2 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 3 events in México state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 48P, which is up 1500 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Mexico as a whole went from 3,005 to 2,462P, which is down 18 percent. For the events in México state, the three types of violence have shares within 5 points of the shares for Mexico.

Table 1. México state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events4448
Estimated deaths, best estimate5457
Low estimate of deaths5457
High estimate of deaths5457
Deaths of civilians215

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for México state, Mexico on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in México state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in México state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 48 events with 57 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. México state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP47P56P
Jalisco Cartel New Generation1P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in México state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of México state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Cuautitlán Izcalli municipality5P5P
Ecatepec de Morelos municipality5P5P
Naucalpan de Juárez municipality18P21P
Tecamac municipality1P1P
Temamatla municipality1P3P
Tlalnepantla de Baz municipality6P8P
Tlalpan municipality2P2P
Toluca municipality1P1P
Tultitlán municipality3P4P
Valle de Chalco Solidaridad municipality3P4P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. México state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict44P92%
One-sided violence against civilians4P8%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of México state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20264P5PCandidate Events
August 20264P4PCandidate Events
July 20267P9PCandidate Events
June 20267P9PCandidate Events
May 20263P3PCandidate Events
April 20269P9PCandidate Events
March 20266P8PCandidate Events
February 20268P10PCandidate Events
June 202514GED
March 202511GED
February 202511GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Mexico: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. México state, Mexico: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/mexico/mexico-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in México state, Mexico in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in México state, Mexico in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 4 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For México state, Mexico in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 57P. The low estimate is 57 and the high estimate is 57P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.