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Oyo state, Nigeria: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Oyo state, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 7,667,318 (Wikidata).
Violence in Oyo state, Nigeria intensified over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 9 events against 3 in the prior quarter (+200%), with 28 estimated deaths.
The 12-month total for Oyo state stands at 17 events and 38 estimated deaths. That is +467% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 29 and 238. 53% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 6. Relative to population, that is 2.2 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group (5 events, 18 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Oct 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025Dec 2024Sep 2024
Events in Oyo state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Oyo state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Oriire lga | 6 | 25 |
| Ibadan North lga | 4 | 4 |
| Orelope lga | 2 | 5 |
| Ido lga | 1 | 1 |
| Saki West lga | 1 | 1 |
| Ogbomosho North lga | 1 | 1 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based, 4 sources | 13 |
| 17 May 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | Government of Nigeria vs JAS State-based, 4 sources | 3 2–3 |
| 15 May 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 3 civilian, 2 sources | 3 0–3 |
| 15 May 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 3 0–3 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Orelope lga Oyo state | Fulani vs Yoruba Non-state, 2 sources | 2 0–2 |
| 15 May 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | JAS vs Civilians One-sided, 2 civilian, 5 sources | 2 |
| 14 Jun 2026 | Oriire lga Oyo state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 1 |
| 17 May 2026 | Oyo state | JAS vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian, 4 sources | 1 |
| 26 May 2026 | Oyo state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 0 0–200 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group | 11 | 39 |
| Eyie | 6 | 6 |
| Black Axe | 5 | 5 |
| JAS | 3 | 6 |
| Fulani | 2 | 5 |
| Yoruba | 2 | 5 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 5 | 18 |
| Black Axe - Eyie | 5 | 5 |
| Fulani - Yoruba | 2 | 5 |
| JAS - Civilians | 2 | 3 |
| Government of Nigeria - JAS | 1 | 3 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 1 | 3 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 5 | 29% |
| Non-state conflict | 9 | 53% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 3 | 18% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Oyo state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 17 organized-violence events in Oyo state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 38 deaths (range 29 to 238).
Is violence in Oyo state increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (9) were up +200% on the preceding 90 days (3).
Who are the main armed actors in Oyo state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Unidentified armed group (11 events), Eyie (6 events), Black Axe (5 events), JAS (3 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Oyo state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Oyo state, 53% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Oct 2025Aug 2025Jun 2025Dec 2024Sep 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Nigeria
Borno state · Plateau state · Zamfara state · Sokoto state · Niger state · Benue state · Kaduna state · Katsina state · Kwara state · Kebbi state · Kogi state · Yobe state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.