Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Kwara state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Kwara statePopulation about 3,192,893 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 1 eventP of organized violence in Kwara state, Nigeria in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in this event is 3P. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 31 eventsP in Kwara state, Nigeria. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 229P. The low estimate is 227 and the high estimate is 269P. UCDP counts 186P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 30 regions of Nigeria with a page, Kwara state has the 12th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Kwara state holds 2 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 1 event in Kwara state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 31P, which is up 3000 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Nigeria as a whole went from 714 to 1,430P, which is up 100 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 19 percentP of the events in Kwara state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Nigeria, the share is 34 percentP.

Table 1. Kwara state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1231
Estimated deaths, best estimate32229
Low estimate of deaths32227
High estimate of deaths32269
Deaths of civilians00186

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Kwara state, Nigeria on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Kwara state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Kwara state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 31 events with 229 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Kwara state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP25P53P
Black Axe3P6P
Eyie3P6P
Government of Nigeria2P8P
JAS3P170P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Kwara state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Kwara state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Baruten lga2P3P
Edu lga3P5P
Ekiti lga1P3P
Ifelodun lga4P6P
Ilorin East lga4P7P
Isin lga1P1P
Kaiama lga7P182P
Moro lga1P1P
Pategi lga4P13P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Kwara state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict14P45%
Non-state conflict6P19%
One-sided violence against civilians11P35%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Kwara state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20261P3PCandidate Events
August 20262P2PCandidate Events
July 20260P0PCandidate Events
June 20264P7PCandidate Events
May 20265P12PCandidate Events
April 20268P27PCandidate Events
March 20266P9PCandidate Events
February 20263P165PCandidate Events
January 20262P4PCandidate Events
April 202511GED
August 202411GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Nigeria: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Kwara state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/nigeria/kwara-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Kwara state, Nigeria in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 1 eventP of organized violence in Kwara state, Nigeria in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 2 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Kwara state, Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 229P. The low estimate is 227 and the high estimate is 269P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.