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Kwara state, Nigeria: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Kwara state, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 3,192,893 (Wikidata).
Kwara state, Nigeria logged 13 events and 25 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, -28% against the preceding 90 days.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 33 events and 233 estimated deaths were recorded in Kwara state. That is +1550% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 231 and 273. 42% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 188. Relative to population, that is 10.3 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group (15 events, 37 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Apr 2025Aug 2024
Events in Kwara state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Kwara state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiama lga | 9 | 186 |
| Ilorin East lga | 4 | 7 |
| Pategi lga | 3 | 10 |
| Edu lga | 3 | 5 |
| Ifelodun lga | 3 | 5 |
| Ekiti lga | 2 | 6 |
| Baruten lga | 2 | 3 |
| Isin lga | 2 | 2 |
| Moro lga | 1 | 1 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2026 | Ilorin East lga Kwara state | Black Axe vs Eyie Non-state, 4 civilian, 2 sources | 4 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Ekiti lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based, 3 sources | 3 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Kaiama lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 3 |
| 23 May 2026 | Ekiti lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 3 civilian, 4 sources | 3 |
| 10 May 2026 | Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 3 2–3 |
| 30 May 2026 | Baruten lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group Non-state | 2 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Kaiama lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Isin lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based | 1 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Isin lga Kwara state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 13 Jun 2026 | Ilorin East lga Kwara state | Black Axe vs Eyie Non-state, 1 civilian, 2 sources | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group | 42 | 94 |
| JAS | 3 | 170 |
| Black Axe | 3 | 6 |
| Eyie | 3 | 6 |
| Government of Nigeria | 2 | 8 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 15 | 37 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 12 | 20 |
| Black Axe - Eyie | 3 | 6 |
| Government of Nigeria - JAS | 2 | 8 |
| JAS - Civilians | 1 | 162 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 14 | 42% |
| Non-state conflict | 6 | 18% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 13 | 39% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Kwara state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 33 organized-violence events in Kwara state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 233 deaths (range 231 to 273).
Is violence in Kwara state increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (13) were down -28% from the preceding 90 days (18).
Who are the main armed actors in Kwara state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Unidentified armed group (42 events), JAS (3 events), Black Axe (3 events), Eyie (3 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Kwara state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Kwara state, 42% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Other regions of Nigeria
Borno state · Plateau state · Zamfara state · Sokoto state · Niger state · Benue state · Kaduna state · Katsina state · Kebbi state · Kogi state · Yobe state · Oyo state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.