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Ogun state, Nigeria: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Ogun state, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 5,217,716 (Wikidata).
Violence in Ogun state, Nigeria intensified over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 2 events against 1 in the prior quarter (+100%), with 7 estimated deaths.
The 12-month total for Ogun state stands at 7 events and 17 estimated deaths. That is roughly the same as the 12 months before. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 15 and 16. 86% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 4. Relative to population, that is 1.3 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Black Axe - Eyie (4 events, 9 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jun 2026May 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025Nov 2024
Events in Ogun state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Ogun state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Obafemi-Owode lga | 2 | 7 |
| Ado-Odo/Ota lga | 2 | 4 |
| Egbado South/Yewa South lga | 1 | 3 |
| Ijebu Ode lga | 1 | 2 |
| Abeokuta South lga | 1 | 1 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2026 | Obafemi-Owode lga Ogun state | Unidentified armed group vs Unidentified armed group State-based, 4 civilian, 3 sources | 6 |
| 3 May 2026 | Abeokuta South lga Ogun state | Buccaneers vs Eyie Non-state, 2 sources | 1 1–2 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Eyie | 6 | 11 |
| Black Axe | 4 | 9 |
| Unidentified armed group | 2 | 12 |
| Buccaneers | 1 | 1 |
| Buccaneers, SVC | 1 | 1 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Black Axe - Eyie | 4 | 9 |
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 1 | 6 |
| Buccaneers - Eyie | 1 | 1 |
| Buccaneers, SVC - Eyie | 1 | 1 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 1 | 14% |
| Non-state conflict | 6 | 86% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 0 | 0% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Ogun state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 7 organized-violence events in Ogun state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 17 deaths (range 15 to 16).
Is violence in Ogun state increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (2) were up +100% on the preceding 90 days (1).
Who are the main armed actors in Ogun state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Eyie (6 events), Black Axe (4 events), Unidentified armed group (2 events), Buccaneers (1 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Ogun state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Ogun state, 86% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jun 2026May 2026Mar 2026Jan 2026Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025Nov 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Nigeria
Borno state · Plateau state · Zamfara state · Sokoto state · Niger state · Benue state · Kaduna state · Katsina state · Kwara state · Kebbi state · Kogi state · Yobe state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.