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Lagos state, Nigeria: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Lagos state, data through 31 Jul 2026. Population about 11,000,598 (Wikidata).
Recorded violence in Lagos state, Nigeria eased over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 5 events compared with 12 in the prior quarter (-58%). Estimated deaths: 7.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 35 events and 54 estimated deaths were recorded in Lagos state. That is +133% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 53 and 57. 89% of events were classed as non-state conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 7. Relative to population, that is 3.2 events per million people.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Black Axe - Eyie (25 events, 41 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025
Events in Lagos state, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Lagos state, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Eti-Osa lga | 7 | 10 |
| Ibeju/Lekki lga | 6 | 7 |
| Ojo lga | 6 | 6 |
| Ikorodu lga | 3 | 9 |
| Lagos Island lga | 3 | 5 |
| Surulere lga | 2 | 4 |
| Alimosho lga | 2 | 3 |
| Amuwo-Odofin lga | 1 | 5 |
| Lagos Mainland lga | 1 | 1 |
| Mushin lga | 1 | 1 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | Ikorodu lga Lagos state | Black Axe vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian, 2 sources | 3 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Lagos state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian, 2 sources | 1 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Lagos state | Unidentified armed group vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 5 Jun 2026 | Eti-Osa lga Lagos state | Black Axe vs Eyie Non-state, 2 sources | 1 |
| 16 May 2026 | Eti-Osa lga Lagos state | Black Axe vs Eyie Non-state | 1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Black Axe | 28 | 46 |
| Eyie | 26 | 42 |
| Unidentified armed group | 8 | 10 |
| SVC | 2 | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 1 | 1 |
| Government of Nigeria | 1 | 1 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Black Axe - Eyie | 25 | 41 |
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 3 | 4 |
| Unidentified armed group - Civilians | 2 | 2 |
| Black Axe - Civilians | 1 | 3 |
| Black Axe - Buccaneers | 1 | 1 |
| Eyie - SVC | 1 | 1 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 0 | 0% |
| Non-state conflict | 31 | 89% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 4 | 11% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Lagos state in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 35 organized-violence events in Lagos state between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 54 deaths (range 53 to 57).
Is violence in Lagos state increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (5) were down -58% from the preceding 90 days (12).
Who are the main armed actors in Lagos state?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Black Axe (28 events), Eyie (26 events), Unidentified armed group (8 events), SVC (2 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Lagos state?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Lagos state, 89% of events over the last 12 months were non-state conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Feb 2025Jan 2025Sep 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Nigeria
Borno state · Plateau state · Zamfara state · Sokoto state · Niger state · Benue state · Kaduna state · Katsina state · Kwara state · Kebbi state · Kogi state · Yobe state
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.