Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

ConflictStats

Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

Search

Lagos state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Lagos statePopulation about 11,000,598 (Wikidata)

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in Lagos state, Nigeria in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 4P. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 32 eventsP in Lagos state, Nigeria. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 45P. The low estimate is 43 and the high estimate is 48P. UCDP counts 6P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 30 regions of Nigeria with a page, Lagos state has the 11th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Lagos state holds 2 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 21 events in Lagos state. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 32P, which is up 52 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Nigeria as a whole went from 714 to 1,430P, which is up 100 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 97 percentP of the events in Lagos state in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Nigeria, the share is 34 percentP.

Table 1. Lagos state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events4132
Estimated deaths, best estimate4145
Low estimate of deaths4143
High estimate of deaths4148
Deaths of civilians006

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Lagos state, Nigeria on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Lagos state by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Lagos state, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 32 events with 45 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Lagos state: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP2P2P
Black Axe27P40P
Buccaneers3P3P
Eyie26P39P
SVC3P3P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Lagos state that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Lagos state in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Ajeromi-Ifelodun lga1P1P
Alimosho lga2P3P
Amuwo-Odofin lga1P5P
Eti-Osa lga5P6P
Ibeju/Lekki lga4P4P
Ikorodu lga2P4P
Lagos Mainland lga3P3P
Mushin lga1P1P
Ojo lga6P6P
Surulere lga3P5P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Lagos state: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict31P97%
One-sided violence against civilians1P3%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Lagos state, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20264P4PCandidate Events
August 20261P1PCandidate Events
July 20262P2PCandidate Events
June 20262P4PCandidate Events
May 20262P3PCandidate Events
April 20263P6PCandidate Events
March 20267P11PCandidate Events
February 20261P1PCandidate Events
January 20264P4PCandidate Events
December 202523GED
November 202513GED
October 202533GED
September 202549GED
August 202546GED
July 202558GED
May 202511GED
April 202512GED
March 202522GED
February 202534GED
January 202513GED
September 202422GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Nigeria: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Lagos state, Nigeria: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/nigeria/lagos-state/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

Embed this card on your site

Copy this code into your page. The card shows the figures above with their source. A line under the card links to this page.

How embedding works. It is free. Keep the link in the card and the link line under it.

Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Lagos state, Nigeria in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in Lagos state, Nigeria in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Lagos state, Nigeria in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 45P. The low estimate is 43 and the high estimate is 48P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.