Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Mexico: events and estimated deaths in October 2025

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP GEDData through

UCDP recorded 236 events of organized violence in Mexico in October 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 681. The low estimate is 177 and the high estimate is 562. UCDP counts 10 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them. The count for September 2025 was 315 events.

The count for October 2024 was 256 events. The change from October 2024 to October 2025 is down 8 percent. Among the 26 months with a report for Mexico, October 2025 has the 10th highest count of events. Mexico holds 11 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in October 2025. In October 2024, the share was 9 percent.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Mexico, October 2025: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsEstimated deaths
Baja California state2720
Chiapas state12
Chihuahua state44123
Colima state26
Guanajuato state49244
Guerrero state2331
Michoacán state1621
Sinaloa state70228
Sonora state11
Tabasco state24
Figure 1. Events in Mexico, October 2025. The map shows 236 events with 681 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Mexico has each event.

Table 2. Mexico, October 2025: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (4 of 236 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
1 Oct 2025Sinaloa stateJalisco Cartel New Generation, Group named for a person (name not shown); Group named for a person (name not shown)Non-state160065
1 Oct 2025Chihuahua stateJuarez Cartel; Sinaloa CartelNon-state22021
1 Oct 2025Guanajuato stateJalisco Cartel New Generation; Santa Rosa de Lima CartelNon-state2210123
1 Oct 2025Chihuahua stateJuarez Cartel; Sinaloa CartelNon-state27027

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Mexico: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of October 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Caborca Cartel, Group named for a person (name not shown)11
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco2025
Carteles Unidos1621
Government of Mexico11
Group named for a person (name not shown)152304
Jalisco Cartel New Generation53255
Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Group named for a person (name not shown)36185
Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Los Blancos de Troya, Los de la Virgen, Group named for a person (name not shown)1621
Juarez Cartel44123
La Barredora24
La Nueva Familia26
Los Rusos2025
Los Tlacos36
Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel48243
Sinaloa Cartel52136

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Type of violence

Table 4. Mexico: events by type of violence, October 2025
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict00%
Non-state conflict23097%
One-sided violence against civilians63%

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Mexico, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026235P262PCandidate Events
August 2026183P216PCandidate Events
July 2026197P236PCandidate Events
June 2026196P241PCandidate Events
May 2026213P242PCandidate Events
April 2026234P285PCandidate Events
March 2026217P270PCandidate Events
February 2026160P158PCandidate Events
January 2026234P401PCandidate Events
December 2025158152GED
November 2025199310GED
October 2025236681GED
September 2025315331GED
August 2025284529GED
July 2025304372GED
June 2025263748GED
May 2025230270GED
April 2025199244GED
March 2025196258GED
February 20252851,297GED
January 20253192,712GED
December 2024171232GED
November 2024183311GED
October 2024256557GED
September 2024277953GED
August 2024245334GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Mexico: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Mexico: events and estimated deaths in October 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/mexico/month/2025-10/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.