Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Nigeria: events and estimated deaths in October 2025

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP GEDData through

UCDP recorded 51 events of organized violence in Nigeria in October 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 255. The low estimate is 243 and the high estimate is 274. UCDP counts 4 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for September 2025 was 69 events.

The count for October 2024 was 52 events. The change from October 2024 to October 2025 is down 2 percent. Among the 26 months with a report for Nigeria, October 2025 has the 20th highest count of events. Nigeria holds 2 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in October 2025. In October 2024, the share was 2 percent.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Nigeria, October 2025: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsEstimated deaths
Benue state23
Borno state21179
Imo state13
Jigawa state12
Lagos state33
Ogun state13
Oyo state22
Plateau state1033
Sokoto state13
Yobe state217
Figure 1. Events in Nigeria, October 2025. The map shows 51 events with 255 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Nigeria has each event.

Table 2. Nigeria, October 2025: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (10 of 51 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
4 Oct 2025Gwoza lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based282728
10 Oct 2025Kaga lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based221822
14 Oct 2025Barkin Ladi lga, Plateau stateBirom; FulaniNon-state121212
17 Oct 2025Bama lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based404040
22 Oct 2025Dikwa lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based121118
22 Oct 2025Dikwa lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based111215
22 Oct 2025Mafa lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based121216
22 Oct 2025Gujba lga, Yobe stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based171717
25 Oct 2025Dikwa lga, Borno stateGovernment of Nigeria; ISState-based101010
26 Oct 2025Kukawa lga, Borno stateIS; JASNon-state191919

In a few events, the high estimate of UCDP is lower than the best estimate, or the low estimate is higher. The site shows the figures as UCDP publishes them.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Nigeria: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of October 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Birom932
Black Axe79
Eyie68
Farmers (Nigeria)79
Fulani1236
Government of Nigeria20172
Group named for a person (name not shown)13
Herders (Nigeria)79
IPOB34
IS20193
JAS527
Mushere11
SVC11
Tiv23

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

Type of violence

Table 4. Nigeria: events by type of violence, October 2025
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict2039%
Non-state conflict3059%
One-sided violence against civilians12%

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Nigeria, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026143P451PCandidate Events
August 2026161P992PCandidate Events
July 2026116P551PCandidate Events
June 2026166P614PCandidate Events
May 2026145P1,010PCandidate Events
April 2026182P1,034PCandidate Events
March 2026113P698PCandidate Events
February 2026108P712PCandidate Events
January 2026142P719PCandidate Events
December 202559358GED
November 202544340GED
October 202551255GED
September 202569336GED
August 202569262GED
July 202567222GED
June 202568469GED
May 202585648GED
April 202568401GED
March 202559248GED
February 202546191GED
January 202547428GED
December 202427182GED
November 202457255GED
October 202452330GED
September 202439235GED
August 202430408GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Nigeria: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Nigeria: events and estimated deaths in October 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/nigeria/month/2025-10/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.