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Middle Juba region, Somalia: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Middle Juba region, data through 31 Jul 2026.
Recorded violence in Middle Juba region, Somalia eased over the 90 days to 31 Jul 2026: 2 events compared with 14 in the prior quarter (-86%). Estimated deaths: 70.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 27 events and 215 estimated deaths were recorded in Middle Juba region. That is +1250% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 214 and 217. 74% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 34.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab (20 events, 181 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Mar 2025Dec 2024
Events in Middle Juba region, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Middle Juba region, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Jilib district | 17 | 149 |
| Buale district | 5 | 22 |
| Saakow district | 3 | 37 |
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May 2026 | Jilib district Middle Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 66 |
| 7 Jun 2026 | Buale district Middle Juba region | Al-Shabaab vs Civilians One-sided, 4 civilian | 4 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Al-Shabaab | 27 | 215 |
| Government of Somalia | 20 | 181 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab | 20 | 181 |
| Al-Shabaab - Civilians | 7 | 34 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 20 | 74% |
| Non-state conflict | 0 | 0% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 7 | 26% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Middle Juba region in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 27 organized-violence events in Middle Juba region between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 215 deaths (range 214 to 217).
Is violence in Middle Juba region increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (2) were down -86% from the preceding 90 days (14).
Who are the main armed actors in Middle Juba region?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Al-Shabaab (27 events), Government of Somalia (20 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Middle Juba region?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Middle Juba region, 74% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Other regions of Somalia
Lower Shabelle region · Hiran region · Middle Shabelle region · Bay region · Lower Juba region · Bari region · Banaadir region · Mudug region · Bakool region · Galgudud region
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.