Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Lower Juba region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Lower Juba region

UCDP recorded 1 eventP of organized violence in Lower Juba region, Somalia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in this event is 0P. The low estimate is 0 and the high estimate is 3P. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 35 eventsP in Lower Juba region, Somalia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 459P. The low estimate is 458 and the high estimate is 521P. UCDP counts 20P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 11 regions of Somalia with a page, Lower Juba region has the 5th highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Lower Juba region holds 8 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 16 events in Lower Juba region. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 35P, which is up 119 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Somalia as a whole went from 293 to 417P, which is up 42 percent. Events of non-state conflict are 0 percent of the events in Lower Juba region in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Somalia, the share is 7 percentP.

Table 1. Lower Juba region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events1135
Estimated deaths, best estimate02459
Low estimate of deaths02458
High estimate of deaths32521
Deaths of civilians0020

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

The log has no change for Lower Juba region, Somalia on record. ConflictStats read the UCDP files on . The data cover events through . Changes in the data

24 months

0510Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Lower Juba region by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Lower Juba region, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 35 events with 459 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Lower Juba region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab34P458P
Government of Somalia33P456P
Jubaland State of Somalia1P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Lower Juba region that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Lower Juba region in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Afmadow district9P27P
Badhadhe district5P120P
Jamame district10P117P
Kismayo district10P181P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Lower Juba region: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict33P94%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians2P6%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Lower Juba region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20261P0PCandidate Events
August 20261P2PCandidate Events
July 20264P38PCandidate Events
June 20262P3PCandidate Events
May 20261P7PCandidate Events
April 20264P35PCandidate Events
March 20262P1PCandidate Events
February 20267P78PCandidate Events
January 20266P171PCandidate Events
December 202510GED
November 20253102GED
October 2025322GED
September 202513GED
July 202533GED
June 2025475GED
May 2025255GED
April 202519GED
January 2025241GED
December 2024110GED
November 2024232GED
September 2024210GED
August 2024334GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Somalia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

Cite and download

ConflictStats. Lower Juba region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/lower-juba-region/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Lower Juba region, Somalia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 1 eventP of organized violence in Lower Juba region, Somalia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 1 eventP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Lower Juba region, Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 459P. The low estimate is 458 and the high estimate is 521P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.