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Lower Juba region, Somalia: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Lower Juba region, data through 31 Jul 2026.
Lower Juba region, Somalia logged 7 events and 45 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026, -46% against the preceding 90 days.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 34 events and 457 estimated deaths were recorded in Lower Juba region. That is +70% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 455 and 519. 94% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 20.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab (32 events, 454 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025
Events in Lower Juba region, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Lower Juba region, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Jamame district | 11 | 120 |
| Kismayo district | 10 | 181 |
| Afmadow district | 7 | 25 |
| Badhadhe district | 4 | 114 |
205,648 internally displaced people recorded in Lower Juba as of 30 Sep 2024. Source: IOM DTM via HDX HAPI.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2026 | Jamame district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 19 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Badhadhe district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources | 16 |
| 20 May 2026 | Kismayo district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 7 civilian, 3 sources | 7 |
| 14 Jun 2026 | Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 3 |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Afmadow district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–1 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Badhadhe district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–3 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Afmadow district Lower Juba region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–1 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Al-Shabaab | 33 | 456 |
| Government of Somalia | 32 | 454 |
| Jubaland State of Somalia | 1 | 1 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab | 32 | 454 |
| Al-Shabaab - Civilians | 1 | 2 |
| Jubaland State of Somalia - Civilians | 1 | 1 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 32 | 94% |
| Non-state conflict | 0 | 0% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 2 | 6% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Lower Juba region in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 34 organized-violence events in Lower Juba region between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 457 deaths (range 455 to 519).
Is violence in Lower Juba region increasing or decreasing?
Decreasing. Events in the last 90 days (7) were down -46% from the preceding 90 days (13).
Who are the main armed actors in Lower Juba region?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Al-Shabaab (33 events), Government of Somalia (32 events), Jubaland State of Somalia (1 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Lower Juba region?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Lower Juba region, 94% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Jan 2025Dec 2024Nov 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024
Other regions of Somalia
Lower Shabelle region · Hiran region · Middle Shabelle region · Bay region · Bari region · Banaadir region · Middle Juba region · Mudug region · Bakool region · Galgudud region
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.