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Bay region, Somalia: conflict statistics
Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Bay region, data through 31 Jul 2026.
Bay region, Somalia saw 15 recorded events and 74 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026. That is +25% on the preceding 90-day period.
The 12-month total for Bay region stands at 41 events and 214 estimated deaths. That is +193% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 212 and 280. 93% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 12.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab (31 events, 178 estimated deaths).
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025Jun 2025
Events in Bay region, last 12 months
Monthly trend
Hotspots within Bay region, last 12 months
| Area (second-level) | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Baidoa district | 28 | 143 |
| Bur Hakaba district | 7 | 57 |
| Dinsor district | 4 | 10 |
| Qansah Dere district | 1 | 4 |
774,374 internally displaced people recorded in Bay as of 30 Sep 2024. Source: IOM DTM via HDX HAPI.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
| Date | Where | Parties | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 3 sources | 50 |
| 30 May 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Forces of Laftagareen State-based, 2 sources | 10 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Forces of Laftagareen State-based, 3 civilian | 3 2–3 |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 3 |
| 21 May 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Forces of Laftagareen State-based, 2 sources | 3 |
| 30 May 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 2 |
| 14 May 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Forces of Laftagareen State-based | 2 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Bur Hakaba district Bay region | Al-Shabaab vs Civilians One-sided, 1 civilian | 1 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–2 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Baidoa district Bay region | Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based | 0 0–4 |
Most recorded parties, last 12 months
| Party | Events | Est. deaths in those events |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia | 37 | 201 |
| Al-Shabaab | 34 | 187 |
| Forces of Laftagareen | 5 | 21 |
| Unidentified armed group | 2 | 8 |
| South West State of Somalia | 1 | 2 |
Conflict pairings, last 12 months
| Pairing | Events | Est. deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab | 31 | 178 |
| Government of Somalia - Forces of Laftagareen | 5 | 21 |
| Al-Shabaab - Civilians | 3 | 9 |
| Unidentified armed group - Unidentified armed group | 1 | 4 |
| Government of Somalia - South West State of Somalia | 1 | 2 |
Type of violence, last 12 months
| Category | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|
| State-based armed conflict | 38 | 93% |
| Non-state conflict | 0 | 0% |
| One-sided violence against civilians | 3 | 7% |
Frequently asked questions
How many conflict events were recorded in Bay region in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 41 organized-violence events in Bay region between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 214 deaths (range 212 to 280).
Is violence in Bay region increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (15) were up +25% on the preceding 90 days (12).
Who are the main armed actors in Bay region?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Government of Somalia (37 events), Al-Shabaab (34 events), Forces of Laftagareen (5 events), Unidentified armed group (2 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Bay region?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Bay region, 93% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.
Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Sep 2025Jul 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Sep 2024Aug 2024
Other regions of Somalia
Lower Shabelle region · Hiran region · Middle Shabelle region · Lower Juba region · Bari region · Banaadir region · Middle Juba region · Mudug region · Bakool region · Galgudud region
Region names follow UCDP's first-level administrative coding. Counts use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. See methodology.