Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Lower Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP

Data through Name of the region as UCDP writes it: Lower Shabelle region

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 4P. The low estimate is 4 and the high estimate is 12P. The count for August 2026 was 11 eventsP.

In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, UCDP recorded 98 eventsP in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia. The best estimate of deaths in the events of the 12 months is 716P. The low estimate is 714 and the high estimate is 901P. UCDP counts 31P of these deaths as deaths of civilians.

Among the 11 regions of Somalia with a page, Lower Shabelle region has the highest count of events in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. Lower Shabelle region holds 24 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. In the 12 months to 30 Sep 2025, UCDP recorded 53 events in Lower Shabelle region. The count for the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026 is 98P, which is up 85 percent. Over the same periods, the count for Somalia as a whole went from 293 to 417P, which is up 42 percent. Events of state-based armed conflict are 99 percentP of the events in Lower Shabelle region in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026. For Somalia, the share is 88 percentP.

Table 1. Lower Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths that UCDP records
FigureSeptember 2026PAugust 2026P12 months to 30 Sep 2026P
Events41198
Estimated deaths, best estimate415716
Low estimate of deaths415714
High estimate of deaths1269901
Deaths of civilians0031

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Since the last update

ConflictStats recorded this on .

  • UCDP recorded 4 events in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia, in September 2026 (preliminary). The count for August 2026 was 11 (preliminary).

All changes recorded on 28 Oct 2026

24 months

01020Jan 2025Jan 2026GEDCandidate
Figure 1. Events in Lower Shabelle region by month. A hollow column is a preliminary month. The line marks the change of dataset: GED to the left, Candidate Events from Jan 2026 to the right. The two datasets are not made in the same way, so a step at the line is not only a change in the events. The figures are in Table 5.
Figure 2. Events in Lower Shabelle region, 1 Oct 2025 to 30 Sep 2026. The map shows 98 events with 716 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 2. Lower Shabelle region: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab98P716P
Government of Somalia97P716P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Second-level areas

The areas in Lower Shabelle region that UCDP names in the events. The table has 10 areas at most.

Table 3. Second-level areas of Lower Shabelle region in the events of the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, in name order
Area, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths
Afgoye district41P234P
Brava district2P69P
Kutum Warey district2P18P
Marka district11P78P
Qoryoley district24P138P
Sablale disctrict5P22P
Wanla Weyne district6P28P

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Lower Shabelle region: events by type of violence, the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict97P99%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians11%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

Monthly reports

One report for each month with events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events.

Table 5. Monthly reports of Lower Shabelle region, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 20264P4PCandidate Events
August 202611P15PCandidate Events
July 202612P73PCandidate Events
June 202611P159PCandidate Events
May 20265P142PCandidate Events
April 20268P54PCandidate Events
March 20267P73PCandidate Events
February 20266P25PCandidate Events
January 202610P44PCandidate Events
December 2025744GED
November 2025656GED
October 20251127GED
September 2025714GED
August 202513252GED
July 2025526GED
June 2025971GED
May 202536GED
April 2025233GED
March 20259179GED
December 202419GED
November 2024316GED
October 202412GED
September 202413GED
August 202426GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 30 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Somalia: all figures

Official channels

These links go to the sites of the organisations. The UCDP and World Bank links were checked on .

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ConflictStats. Lower Shabelle region, Somalia: events and estimated deaths recorded by UCDP. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/lower-shabelle-region/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.

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Questions

How many events did UCDP record in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026?

UCDP recorded 4 eventsP of organized violence in Lower Shabelle region, Somalia in September 2026. The count for August 2026 was 11 eventsP.

How does UCDP count deaths?

UCDP gives a best estimate, a low estimate and a high estimate for each event. This page uses the best estimate. For Lower Shabelle region, Somalia in the 12 months to 30 Sep 2026, the best estimate is 716P. The low estimate is 714 and the high estimate is 901P.

Are the figures of the latest months final?

No. The figures from January 2026 are from UCDP Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them. UCDP releases the reviewed dataset, the GED, one time each year.