Organized violence recorded by UCDP in Lower Shabelle region, data through 31 Jul 2026.
9events, last 30 days
27events, last 90 days▲ +29% vs prior 90 days
102events, last 12 months
863est. deaths, last 12 monthsrange 859–1,096, 34 civilians
Lower Shabelle region, Somalia saw 27 recorded events and 274 estimated deaths from 3 May 2026 to 31 Jul 2026. That is +29% on the preceding 90-day period.
Over the 12 months to 31 Jul 2026, 102 events and 863 estimated deaths were recorded in Lower Shabelle region. That is +183% on the previous 12 months. UCDP's low and high estimates put the death toll between 859 and 1,096. 97% of events were classed as state-based armed conflict. Civilian deaths in the same period: 34.
The most active conflict pairing over the last 12 months was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab (99 events, 862 estimated deaths).
Recorded organized-violence events in Lower Shabelle region, 1 Aug 2025 to 31 Jul 2026. Circle size scales with estimated deaths.State-based Non-state One-sidedOutlines: Natural Earth.
Monthly trend
Recorded events per month in Lower Shabelle region, last 24 months
Hotspots within Lower Shabelle region, last 12 months
Area (second-level)
Events
Est. deaths
Afgoye district
51
473
Qoryoley district
22
154
Marka district
9
39
Wanla Weyne district
5
28
Sablale disctrict
4
18
Brava district
2
69
Kutum Warey district
2
18
79,260 internally displaced people recorded in Lower Shabelle as of 30 Sep 2024. Source: IOM DTM via HDX HAPI.
Deadliest recorded events, last 90 days
Date
Where
Parties
Est. deaths
28 May 2026
Brava district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based
67
28 May 2026
Afgoye district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based
67
30 Jun 2026
Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources
35
5 Jul 2026
Qoryoley district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources
15
14 Jun 2026
Kutum Warey district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 4 sources
14
19 Jul 2026
Afgoye district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 3 sources
9
1 Jul 2026
Qoryoley district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources
9
1 Jul 2026
Afgoye district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources
9
1 Jul 2026
Afgoye district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 2 sources
9
4 Jul 2026
Afgoye district Lower Shabelle region
Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab State-based, 3 sources
How many conflict events were recorded in Lower Shabelle region in the last 12 months?
UCDP recorded 102 organized-violence events in Lower Shabelle region between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jul 2026, with an estimated 863 deaths (range 859 to 1,096).
Is violence in Lower Shabelle region increasing or decreasing?
Increasing. Events in the last 90 days (27) were up +29% on the preceding 90 days (21).
Who are the main armed actors in Lower Shabelle region?
The parties recorded in the most events over the last 12 months were Al-Shabaab (101 events), Government of Somalia (100 events).
What kind of violence is recorded in Lower Shabelle region?
UCDP classes events as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence against civilians. In Lower Shabelle region, 97% of events over the last 12 months were state-based armed conflict.
Where does this data come from?
Event counts and death estimates come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset and its monthly Candidate Events releases, published under CC BY 4.0. Figures use UCDP's "best" fatality estimate. Data on this page runs through 31 Jul 2026.