Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Somalia: events and estimated deaths in October 2025

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP GEDData through

UCDP recorded 45 events of organized violence in Somalia in October 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 149. The low estimate is 143 and the high estimate is 204. UCDP counts 3 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for September 2025 was 29 events.

The count for October 2024 was 15 events. The change from October 2024 to October 2025 is up 200 percent. Among the 26 months with a report for Somalia, October 2025 has the 2nd highest count of events. Somalia holds 2 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in October 2025. In October 2024, the share was 1 percent.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Somalia, October 2025: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsEstimated deaths
Bakool region110
Banaadir region310
Bari region1232
Galgudud region25
Hiran region825
Lower Juba region322
Lower Shabelle region1127
Middle Juba region37
Middle Shabelle region211
Figure 1. Events in Somalia, October 2025. The map shows 45 events with 149 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Somalia has each event.

Table 2. Somalia, October 2025: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (5 of 45 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
3 Oct 2025Bossaso district, Bari regionPuntland State of Somalia; ISNon-state131313
14 Oct 2025Qoryoley district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based111111
15 Oct 2025Kandala district, Bari regionPuntland State of Somalia; ISNon-state101010
21 Oct 2025Hudur district, Bakool regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based101010
29 Oct 2025Jamame district, Lower Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based181818

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Somalia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of October 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab33117
Government of Somalia34122
IS1232
Puntland State of Somalia1027

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

Type of violence

Table 4. Somalia: events by type of violence, October 2025
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict3476%
Non-state conflict1022%
One-sided violence against civilians12%

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Somalia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202625P194PCandidate Events
August 202638P148PCandidate Events
July 202646P325PCandidate Events
June 202630P368PCandidate Events
May 202629P358PCandidate Events
April 202632P296PCandidate Events
March 202630P188PCandidate Events
February 202637P231PCandidate Events
January 202644P972PCandidate Events
December 202535249GED
November 202526279GED
October 202545149GED
September 202529195GED
August 202532379GED
July 202531177GED
June 202542479GED
May 202536498GED
April 202524214GED
March 202530548GED
February 202520577GED
January 202516128GED
December 20247112GED
November 202411106GED
October 202415280GED
September 20241489GED
August 202419156GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Somalia: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Somalia: events and estimated deaths in October 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/month/2025-10/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.