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Somalia › Lower Shabelle region › October 2025

Lower Shabelle region: conflict events in October 2025

Monthly report from UCDP event data for Lower Shabelle region, Somalia. Country-wide report: Somalia, October 2025.

11events7 the month before
27est. deathsrange 25–59
0civilian deaths

Lower Shabelle region, Somalia saw 11 recorded events and 27 estimated deaths in October 2025. That is +57% compared with 7 events the month before. The death toll range is 25 to 59.

91% of the month's events were state-based armed conflict.

The most active pairing was Government of Somalia - Al-Shabaab with 10 events.

Where events happened

2025-10-31: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (3 deaths)2025-10-27: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (0 deaths)2025-10-23: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (0 deaths)2025-10-23: Al-Shabaab vs Civilians (0 deaths)2025-10-14: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (11 deaths)2025-10-13: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (0 deaths)2025-10-10: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (0 deaths)2025-10-07: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (0 deaths)2025-10-06: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (7 deaths)2025-10-04: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (3 deaths)2025-10-03: Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab (3 deaths)
Recorded organized-violence events in Lower Shabelle region, October 2025. Circle size scales with estimated deaths.State-based Non-state One-sidedOutlines: Natural Earth.

Deadliest events, October 2025

DateWherePartiesEst. deaths
14 Oct 2025Qoryoley district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		11
6 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based, 3 sources		7
31 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		3
4 Oct 2025Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based, 3 sources		3
2–3
3 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based, 2 sources		3
2–3
27 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		0
0–4
23 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Al-Shabaab vs Civilians
One-sided		0
0–1
23 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		0
0–1
13 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		0
0–17
10 Oct 2025Afgoye district
Lower Shabelle region		Government of Somalia vs Al-Shabaab
State-based		0
0–4

Parties

PartyEventsEst. deaths
Al-Shabaab1127
Government of Somalia1027

All months

Monthly reports:Jul 2026Jun 2026May 2026Apr 2026Mar 2026Feb 2026Jan 2026Dec 2025Nov 2025Oct 2025Sep 2025Aug 2025Jul 2025Jun 2025May 2025Apr 2025Mar 2025Dec 2024Nov 2024Oct 2024Sep 2024Aug 2024Jul 2024

← Lower Shabelle region overview

Source: UCDP GED and Candidate Events, CC BY 4.0. See methodology.