Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Somalia: events and estimated deaths in January 2026

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP Candidate Events, preliminaryData through

UCDP recorded 44 eventsP of organized violence in Somalia in January 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 972P. The low estimate is 970 and the high estimate is 1,034P. UCDP counts 34P of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for December 2025 was 35 events.

The count for January 2025 was 16 events. The change from January 2025 to January 2026 is up 175 percentP. Among the 26 months with a report for Somalia, January 2026 has the 3rd highest count of events. Somalia holds 3 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in January 2026. In January 2025, the share was 1 percent.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Somalia, January 2026: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsPEstimated deathsP
Bari region36
Bay region652
Galgudud region17
Gedo region10
Hiran region14
Lower Juba region6171
Lower Shabelle region1044
Middle Juba region657
Middle Shabelle region10631

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 1. Events in Somalia, January 2026. The map shows 44 events with 972 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Somalia has each event.

Table 2. Somalia, January 2026: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (15 of 44 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsPLowHigh
3 Jan 2026Bur Hakaba district, Bay regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based202020
3 Jan 2026Jilib district, Middle Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based151515
8 Jan 2026Saakow district, Middle Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based181818
8 Jan 2026Saakow district, Middle Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based181818
8 Jan 2026Bur Hakaba district, Bay regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based222222
12 Jan 2026Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based171717
14 Jan 2026Kismayo district, Lower Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based131313
15 Jan 2026Marka district, Lower Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based313131
18 Jan 2026Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based161616
18 Jan 2026Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based498498498
21 Jan 2026Kismayo district, Lower Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based242424
21 Jan 2026Kismayo district, Lower Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based106106106
23 Jan 2026Kismayo district, Lower Juba regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based242424
26 Jan 2026Balad district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based505050
31 Jan 2026Adan Yabal district, Middle Shabelle regionGovernment of Somalia; Al-ShabaabState-based404040

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Somalia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of January 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Al-Shabaab41P966P
Government of Somalia41P964P
IS3P6P
SFC2P3P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Somalia: events by type of violence, January 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict41P93%
Non-state conflict2P5%
One-sided violence against civilians1P2%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Somalia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 202625P194PCandidate Events
August 202638P148PCandidate Events
July 202646P325PCandidate Events
June 202630P368PCandidate Events
May 202629P358PCandidate Events
April 202632P296PCandidate Events
March 202630P188PCandidate Events
February 202637P231PCandidate Events
January 202644P972PCandidate Events
December 202535249GED
November 202526279GED
October 202545149GED
September 202529195GED
August 202532379GED
July 202531177GED
June 202542479GED
May 202536498GED
April 202524214GED
March 202530548GED
February 202520577GED
January 202516128GED
December 20247112GED
November 202411106GED
October 202415280GED
September 20241489GED
August 202419156GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Somalia: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Somalia: events and estimated deaths in January 2026. https://conflictstats.com/country/somalia/month/2026-01/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.