Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in October 2025

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP GEDData through

UCDP recorded 86 events of organized violence in Ethiopia in October 2025. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 557. The low estimate is 337 and the high estimate is 1,065. UCDP counts 36 of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for September 2025 was 61 events.

The count for October 2024 was 118 events. The change from October 2024 to October 2025 is down 27 percent. Among the 26 months with a report for Ethiopia, October 2025 has the 14th highest count of events. Ethiopia holds 4 percent of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in October 2025. In October 2024, the share was 4 percent.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Ethiopia, October 2025: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsEstimated deaths
Amhara state73416
Dire Dawa Chartered City state145
Oromiya state1195
Tigray state11
Figure 1. Events in Ethiopia, October 2025. The map shows 86 events with 557 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Ethiopia has each event.

Table 2. Ethiopia, October 2025: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (15 of 86 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsLowHigh
4 Oct 2025Awi zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based202020
7 Oct 2025Arsi zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based131313
9 Oct 2025Arsi zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based151515
14 Oct 2025Central Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based42042
18 Oct 2025Awi zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based232323
18 Oct 2025North Gojjam zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based171717
19 Oct 2025West Shewa zone, Oromiya stateFano; CiviliansOne-sided251229
19 Oct 2025East Hararghe zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based151515
20 Oct 2025North Gojjam zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based41041
21 Oct 2025West Gojjam zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based212124
23 Oct 2025East Hararghe zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based171717
27 Oct 2025North Gojjam zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based36036
27 Oct 2025South Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based101010
27 Oct 2025Dire Dawa Chartered City stateGovernment of Ethiopia; OLAState-based454545
30 Oct 2025Central Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based80080

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Ethiopia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of October 2025, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Fano75442
Government of Ethiopia83530
OLA7110
TPLF11

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death.

Type of violence

Table 4. Ethiopia: events by type of violence, October 2025
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict8093%
Non-state conflict00%
One-sided violence against civilians67%

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Ethiopia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026119P609PCandidate Events
August 202671P353PCandidate Events
July 202659P242PCandidate Events
June 202669P350PCandidate Events
May 202657P211PCandidate Events
April 202670P257PCandidate Events
March 202693P640PCandidate Events
February 202682P533PCandidate Events
January 202691P300PCandidate Events
December 202582361GED
November 202568865GED
October 202586557GED
September 202561706GED
August 202583308GED
July 202580245GED
June 2025112323GED
May 202591266GED
April 2025197631GED
March 2025153631GED
February 202596153GED
January 2025172412GED
December 2024129183GED
November 2024102289GED
October 2024118479GED
September 2024125311GED
August 202429231GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in October 2025. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/month/2025-10/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.