Bulletin 2026-09UCDP data through GED 26.1, Candidate Events 26.0.9Changes in the data

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Events and deaths in organized violence, as UCDP records them

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Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in March 2026

Monthly reportDataset: UCDP Candidate Events, preliminaryData through

UCDP recorded 93 eventsP of organized violence in Ethiopia in March 2026. The best estimate of deaths in these events is 640P. The low estimate is 606 and the high estimate is 1,639P. UCDP counts 55P of these deaths as deaths of civilians. The count for February 2026 was 82 eventsP.

The count for March 2025 was 153 events. The change from March 2025 to March 2026 is down 39 percentP. Among the 26 months with a report for Ethiopia, March 2026 has the 11th highest count of events. Ethiopia holds 5 percentP of the events that UCDP recorded in all countries with a page in March 2026. In March 2025, the share was 7 percent.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Not all events in UCDP Candidate will make it into the final UCDP GED and new events will be added. The UCDP Candidate is a dataset containing events that have a high probability of being included in the final annual version of UCDP GED.

An incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least 1 direct death at a specific location and a specific date

UCDP's words. Source: UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Codebook, version 1.5 (Introduction) and UCDP GED Codebook, version 26.1 (section 2, the definition of an event), copied on .

This page rests on UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9, with data through . The figures from January 2026 are from Candidate Events. Candidate Events are preliminary and UCDP revises them.

The pages give counts and their sources. They give no travel, security or safety advice. A count of events is not a measure of danger.

Regions

The table has 10 regions at most.

Table 1. Ethiopia, March 2026: events and estimated deaths by region, in name order
RegionEventsPEstimated deathsP
Amhara state56575
Oromiya state3459
South Ethiopia regional state11
Tigray state25

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Figure 1. Events in Ethiopia, March 2026. The map shows 93 events with 640 estimated deaths. One dot is one event at the place that UCDP gives. When a source names no exact place, UCDP puts the event at the centre of a region or of the country. The area of a dot follows the best estimate of deaths. The largest dot is for 330 deaths or more.1 death10 deaths100 deathsOutlines: Natural Earth, with the first-level areas of the UCDP data. An outline shows where the events are. It is not a statement about a border.

Events

The table lists the events with 10 or more estimated deaths. The CSV file of Ethiopia has each event.

Table 2. Ethiopia, March 2026: events with 10 or more estimated deaths (6 of 93 events), in the order of their dates
DatePlaceSides, as UCDP writes themType of violenceEstimated deathsPLowHigh
2 Mar 2026Horo Gudru Welega zone, Oromiya stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based101010
18 Mar 2026South Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based6363163
18 Mar 2026South Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based146146163
18 Mar 2026South Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based146146162
18 Mar 2026South Gondar zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based145145163
30 Mar 2026Awi zone, Amhara stateGovernment of Ethiopia; FanoState-based101010

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Actors, as UCDP names them

Names as UCDP writes them.

Table 3. Ethiopia: actors, as UCDP names them, in the events of March 2026, in name order
Name, as UCDP writes itEventsEstimated deaths in these events
Actor not identified by UCDP4P11P
ALF1P0P
Fano61P601P
Government of Ethiopia84P615P
OLA10P0P
Tekeze Guards1P4P
TPLF1P1P

An event has two sides, so one event can be in two rows. The deaths are the deaths in the events of a side. The table does not say which side caused a death. Names are as UCDP writes them, with two labels that the site writes. UCDP does not identify some actors: the site writes "Actor not identified by UCDP" for each of them. UCDP names some groups for a person: the site writes "Group named for a person (name not shown)" for each of them. A line with a label can hold more than one actor.

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

Type of violence

Table 4. Ethiopia: events by type of violence, March 2026
Type of violenceEventsShare of events
State-based armed conflict69P74%
Non-state conflict1P1%
One-sided violence against civilians23P25%

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events.

The glossary has the UCDP definition of each type.

All months

Table 5. Monthly reports of Ethiopia, newest first: events and estimated deaths
MonthEventsEstimated deathsDataset
September 2026119P609PCandidate Events
August 202671P353PCandidate Events
July 202659P242PCandidate Events
June 202669P350PCandidate Events
May 202657P211PCandidate Events
April 202670P257PCandidate Events
March 202693P640PCandidate Events
February 202682P533PCandidate Events
January 202691P300PCandidate Events
December 202582361GED
November 202568865GED
October 202586557GED
September 202561706GED
August 202583308GED
July 202580245GED
June 2025112323GED
May 202591266GED
April 2025197631GED
March 2025153631GED
February 202596153GED
January 2025172412GED
December 2024129183GED
November 2024102289GED
October 2024118479GED
September 2024125311GED
August 202429231GED

P Preliminary. The figure is from UCDP Candidate Events, and UCDP revises these events. Search engines list a report of a month in the last 12 months that has 20 or more events. The other reports stay online and ask search engines not to list them.

Ethiopia: all figures

Cite this page

ConflictStats. Ethiopia: events and estimated deaths in March 2026. https://conflictstats.com/country/ethiopia/month/2026-03/. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP GED 26.1 and UCDP Candidate Events 26.0.9. Data through .

The address of this page does not change. UCDP asks for a citation of its publications: Data sources and licences has it.